Orgryte IS 4-0 IK brage – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates IK brage at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees IK brage travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Orgryte IS have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS at Gamla Ullevi this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gamla Ullevi this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Orgryte IS) versus 1.40 (IK brage). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Orgryte IS register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, IK brage in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Orgryte IS, 1 for IK brage and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 0–4 with IK brage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
IK brage in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orgryte IS 65% and IK brage 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 48% | IK brage 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.32 xG and IK brage 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.922 / defence 1.057 | IK brage attack 1.295 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.305. IK brage have an above-average attack strength of 1.295 — the away xG of 1.79 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Orgryte IS games / 54 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 28% | Draw 23% | IK brage 48%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | IK brage 2.08. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 60% | IK brage 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 28% | Draw 23% | IK brage 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Orgryte IS 1.32 / IK brage 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.922 / def 1.057 | IK brage attack 1.295 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: IK brage (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.79
IK brage xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs IK brage kick off?
Orgryte IS vs IK brage kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs IK brage?
Orgryte IS 4 - 0 IK brage.
Where is Orgryte IS vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs IK brage part of?
Orgryte IS vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 28% chance of winning, IK brage a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Orgryte IS and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and IK brage?
Record (3 meetings): Orgryte IS 1W | Draws 1 | IK brage 1W.
What form are Orgryte IS and IK brage in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. IK brage (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 0.92x the league average against IK brage's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
28%
3.53
23%
4.30
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
3.11
1.79
IK brage xG
3.53
28%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
17%
5.97
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
5%
21.06
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.79 for IK brage, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 14W 23D 17L from 54 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 17L across 54 games — 1.46 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.20 PPG, IK brage on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 6W 14D 6L from 26 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IK brage's away record stands at 10W 9D 7L across 26 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.50 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; IK brage in 65%.
Last 54 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and IK brage in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 14W 23D 17L in their last 54 games (1.20 PPG), while IK brage have gone 21W 16D 17L in their last 54 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or IK brage away?
IK brage's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.23 PPG; IK brage away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orgryte IS and IK brage runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 August 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2022, when IK brage won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Orgryte IS
3
Draws
4
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and IK brage?
From 10 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 3, IK brage have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2025, when Orgryte IS 2-2 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Orgryte IS at 65%, IK brage at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Orgryte IS) and 65% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Orgryte IS's games and 77% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 65% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and IK brage tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, IK brage in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Orgryte IS run riot with a 4-0 hammering of IK brage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat IK brage 4-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.32 xG and IK brage 1.79 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IK brage landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.92 / defence 1.06 against IK brage attack 1.29 / defence 0.98, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 28% | Draw 23% | IK brage 48%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Orgryte IS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 48%, IK brage 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
IK brage's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.20 PPG, IK brage 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.