Orebro SK 0-0 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trelleborg at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orebro SK vs Trelleborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Trelleborg make the trip to Behrn Arena to face Orebro SK in Superettan, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Monday 5 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Orebro SK's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Orebro SK's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Behrn Arena this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Trelleborg (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Trelleborg away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Orebro SK against 1.60 for Trelleborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Orebro SK lead 0W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Trelleborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Orebro SK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Trelleborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 53% versus Trelleborg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 57% | Trelleborg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.00 xG and Trelleborg 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.755 / defence 1.147 | Trelleborg attack 0.836 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.280. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Orebro SK games / 35 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 30% | Draw 29% | Trelleborg 41%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Trelleborg 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trelleborg are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 50% | Trelleborg 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Monday 5 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 30% | Draw 29% | Trelleborg 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Orebro SK 1.00 / Trelleborg 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.755 / def 1.147 | Trelleborg attack 0.836 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Trelleborg xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Trelleborg kick off?
Orebro SK vs Trelleborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 5 May 2025 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Trelleborg?
Orebro SK 0 - 0 Trelleborg.
Where is Orebro SK vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Trelleborg part of?
Orebro SK vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 30% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Orebro SK and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Trelleborg?
Record (6 meetings): Orebro SK 0W | Draws 4 | Trelleborg 2W.
What form are Orebro SK and Trelleborg in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Trelleborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Orebro SK's attack rating (0.76) and Trelleborg's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (0.84x) against Orebro SK's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
30%
3.33
29%
3.49
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.23
1.23
Trelleborg xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
9%
11.35
15%
6.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.23 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Orebro SK have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 18W 19D 23L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Trelleborg's form line: 22W 15D 23L from 60 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Orebro SK against 1.35 for Trelleborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Orebro SK have posted 1.77 PPG from 30 outings (14W 11D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Orebro SK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 9W 8D 13L from 30 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orebro SK are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.22 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Current Season
Trelleborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 18W 19D 23L in their last 60 games (1.22 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 22W 15D 23L in their last 60 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Trelleborg away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.77 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 0W 4D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Trelleborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Orebro SK
6
Draws
2
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Trelleborg?
From 8 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 0, Trelleborg have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Trelleborg 1-1 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Trelleborg?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orebro SK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 43%, Trelleborg 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Orebro SK) and 50% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Orebro SK have failed to score in 37% of games; Trelleborg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Trelleborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 53% of Trelleborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Orebro SK's recent games and 50% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Orebro SK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 6, as Orebro SK and Trelleborg drew 0-0 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.00 xG and Trelleborg 1.23 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Orebro SK fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Trelleborg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.76 / defence 1.15 against Trelleborg attack 0.84 / defence 1.01, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 30% | Draw 29% | Trelleborg 41%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 57%, Trelleborg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.22 PPG, Trelleborg 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.