Ljungskile SK vs Landskrona BoIS – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ljungskile SK vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 30 as Ljungskile SK welcome Landskrona BoIS to . Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Ljungskile SK stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ljungskile SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ljungskile SK's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Landskrona BoIS's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Landskrona BoIS are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ljungskile SK register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Landskrona BoIS in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ljungskile SK, 1 for Landskrona BoIS and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Landskrona BoIS winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Ljungskile SK in-play tendencies (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ljungskile SK 59% and Landskrona BoIS 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ljungskile SK 48% | Landskrona BoIS 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ljungskile SK 1.26 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ljungskile SK attack 0.843 / defence 1.082 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.278 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.325. Landskrona BoIS have an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 27 Ljungskile SK games / 57 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 25% | Draw 26% | Landskrona BoIS 49%. Fair-value odds: Ljungskile SK 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Landskrona BoIS 2.04. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Ljungskile SK 60% | Landskrona BoIS 60% BTTS from recent games.

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