Landskrona BoIS 0-0 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 34%, yet in-form Kalmar FF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Landskrona BoIS vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Landskrona Idrottsplats plays host to Landskrona BoIS versus Kalmar FF in Superettan, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Wednesday 24 September 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Landskrona BoIS's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Landskrona BoIS have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Landskrona BoIS are significantly better at Landskrona Idrottsplats than their overall form suggests.
Kalmar FF (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF away from home this season: 3W 7D 0L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Kalmar FF arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Landskrona BoIS 0W, Kalmar FF 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2025, ended 2–3 with Kalmar FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Kalmar FF half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 55% versus Kalmar FF 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 55% | Kalmar FF 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.02 xG and Kalmar FF 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.916 / defence 1.055 | Kalmar FF attack 0.809 / defence 0.718. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.186. Kalmar FF's defence strength of 0.718 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 Landskrona BoIS games / 23 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 34% | Draw 32% | Kalmar FF 34%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Kalmar FF 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Landskrona BoIS 60% | Kalmar FF 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Sep 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 34% | Draw 32% | Kalmar FF 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.02 / Kalmar FF 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.916 / def 1.055 | Kalmar FF attack 0.809 / def 0.718 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Kalmar FF xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 24 September 2025 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Kalmar FF?
Landskrona BoIS 0 - 0 Kalmar FF.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Kalmar FF part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 34% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Kalmar FF?
Record (1 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 0W | Draws 0 | Kalmar FF 1W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Kalmar FF in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (0.92) and Kalmar FF's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (0.81x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 53/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
34%
2.93
32%
3.13
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.03
1.01
Kalmar FF xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
12%
8.06
12%
8.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.01 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Landskrona BoIS have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 22W 13D 18L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalmar FF's form line: 21W 15D 17L from 53 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 1.47 for Kalmar FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Landskrona BoIS have posted 1.69 PPG from 26 outings (12W 8D 6L).
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 7W 12D 7L from 26 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.45 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 22W 13D 18L in their last 53 games (1.49 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 21W 15D 17L in their last 53 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Kalmar FF away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.69 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 24 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Landskrona BoIS
1
Draws
1
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Kalmar FF?
From 2 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 0, Kalmar FF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 24 September 2025, when Landskrona BoIS 0-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Kalmar FF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 54%, Kalmar FF 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Landskrona BoIS) and 54% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Kalmar FF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Kalmar FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 65% of Kalmar FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 54% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Landskrona BoIS's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 24, as Landskrona BoIS and Kalmar FF drew 0-0 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.02 xG and Kalmar FF 1.01 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Kalmar FF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.92 / defence 1.05 against Kalmar FF attack 0.81 / defence 0.72, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 34% | Draw 32% | Kalmar FF 34%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 55%, Kalmar FF 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.49 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.