Landskrona BoIS 0-3 Falkenbergs FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Falkenbergs FF make the trip to Landskrona Idrottsplats to face Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Monday 26 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Landskrona BoIS (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Falkenbergs FF's overall Superettan record this term: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Falkenbergs FF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Landskrona BoIS's 1.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Falkenbergs FF's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Landskrona BoIS lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Falkenbergs FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.86 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.134 / defence 1.073 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.985 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.270. Data: 39 Landskrona BoIS games / 9 Falkenbergs FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 50% | Draw 23% | Falkenbergs FF 28%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Falkenbergs FF 3.57. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Monday 26 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 50% | Draw 23% | Falkenbergs FF 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.86 / Falkenbergs FF 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.134 / def 1.073 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.985 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Falkenbergs FF xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 26 May 2025 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Landskrona BoIS 0 - 3 Falkenbergs FF.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 50% chance of winning, Falkenbergs FF a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Falkenbergs FF will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Falkenbergs FF?
Record (2 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 1W | Draws 0 | Falkenbergs FF 1W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Falkenbergs FF in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Falkenbergs FF's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. Flip it around — Falkenbergs FF's attack (0.98x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 39/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
50%
2.01
23%
4.43
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
3.21
1.34
Falkenbergs FF xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
16%
6.45
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
4%
23.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Falkenbergs FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.34 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Landskrona BoIS's recent record stands at 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Falkenbergs FF, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-L in their last five. Falkenbergs FF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.50 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 0.50 for Falkenbergs FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Falkenbergs FF are on 1.00 scored and 2.50 conceded.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Early Season
Falkenbergs FF
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Falkenbergs FF in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Falkenbergs FF have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Falkenbergs FF won 0-3 on 26 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Landskrona BoIS have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Falkenbergs FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Landskrona BoIS
1
Draws
3
Falkenbergs FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Falkenbergs FF?
From 5 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, Falkenbergs FF have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Falkenbergs FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 1-2 Falkenbergs FF.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Falkenbergs FF?
Falkenbergs FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Falkenbergs FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Falkenbergs FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 50% of Falkenbergs FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Landskrona BoIS's matches and 100% of Falkenbergs FF's.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Falkenbergs FF tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Falkenbergs FF in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Falkenbergs FF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Falkenbergs FF beat Landskrona BoIS 0-3 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.86 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.34 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Falkenbergs FF outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.13 / defence 1.07 against Falkenbergs FF attack 0.98 / defence 1.14, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 50% | Draw 23% | Falkenbergs FF 28%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Falkenbergs FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 50%, Falkenbergs FF 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 0.50 PPG, Falkenbergs FF 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Falkenbergs FF win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Falkenbergs FF scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.