GIF Sundsvall 3-2 Stockholm Internazionale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs Stockholm Internazionale encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stockholm Internazionale make the trip to NP3 Arena to face GIF Sundsvall in Superettan, Relegation Round. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 4W 2D 4L at NP3 Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Stockholm Internazionale (all games): 0W 0D 1L across 1 Superettan outings this term — 0.00 points per game. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Stockholm Internazionale have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward GIF Sundsvall. A 1.70 PPG lead over Stockholm Internazionale (1.70 vs 0.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — GIF Sundsvall lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.58 xG and Stockholm Internazionale 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.957 / defence 0.936 | Stockholm Internazionale attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.194. Data: 60 GIF Sundsvall games / 0 Stockholm Internazionale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 51% | Draw 27% | Stockholm Internazionale 22%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Stockholm Internazionale 4.55. GIF Sundsvall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIF Sundsvall at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Stockholm Internazionale | Competition: Superettan, Relegation Round | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 51% | Draw 27% | Stockholm Internazionale 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.58 / Stockholm Internazionale 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.957 / def 0.936 | Stockholm Internazionale attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Stockholm Internazionale xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Stockholm Internazionale kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Stockholm Internazionale kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Stockholm Internazionale?
GIF Sundsvall 3 - 2 Stockholm Internazionale.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Stockholm Internazionale being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Stockholm Internazionale part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Stockholm Internazionale is a Relegation Round fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Stockholm Internazionale?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 51% chance of winning, Stockholm Internazionale a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Stockholm Internazionale?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Stockholm Internazionale will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Stockholm Internazionale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Stockholm Internazionale?
Record (1 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 1W | Draws 0 | Stockholm Internazionale 0W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Stockholm Internazionale in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Stockholm Internazionale (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
What do the betting odds say about GIF Sundsvall vs Stockholm Internazionale?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates GIF Sundsvall's attack at 0.96x the league average against Stockholm Internazionale's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stockholm Internazionale's attack (0.85x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 60/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.66
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.53
0.95
Stockholm Internazionale xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
4%
22.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.9 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Stockholm Internazionale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Stockholm Internazionale expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 0.95 for Stockholm Internazionale, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Stockholm Internazionale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Stockholm Internazionale sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Stockholm Internazionale, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
GIF Sundsvall carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Stockholm Internazionale — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Stockholm Internazionale are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: GIF Sundsvall have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Stockholm Internazionale in 0%.
Defensively: GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Early Season
Stockholm Internazionale
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Stockholm Internazionale in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Stockholm Internazionale have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have GIF Sundsvall or Stockholm Internazionale been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Stockholm Internazionale in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
GIF Sundsvall
0
Draws
0
Stockholm Internazionale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Stockholm Internazionale?
From 2 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, Stockholm Internazionale have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Stockholm Internazionale last play each other?
They last met on 24 November 2024, when GIF Sundsvall 3-2 Stockholm Internazionale.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Stockholm Internazionale?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Stockholm Internazionale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Stockholm Internazionale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 0% of Stockholm Internazionale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Stockholm Internazionale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 0% of Stockholm Internazionale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Stockholm Internazionale tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Stockholm Internazionale in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as GIF Sundsvall edge out Stockholm Internazionale 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Stockholm Internazionale 3-2 at NP3 Arena, Relegation Round, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.58 xG and Stockholm Internazionale 0.95 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stockholm Internazionale outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.96 / defence 0.94 against Stockholm Internazionale attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 51% | Draw 27% | Stockholm Internazionale 22%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 0%, Stockholm Internazionale 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, GIF Sundsvall arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. GIF Sundsvall scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockholm Internazionale scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.