GIF Sundsvall 1-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall host Ostersunds FK at NP3 Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 March 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
GIF Sundsvall — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 3W 4D 3L at NP3 Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ostersunds FK stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ostersunds FK's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: GIF Sundsvall 1.20 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. GIF Sundsvall register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Ostersunds FK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, Ostersunds FK 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Ostersunds FK in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 57% versus Ostersunds FK 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 60% | Ostersunds FK 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.53 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.954 / defence 1.021 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.997 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.194. Data: 30 GIF Sundsvall games / 30 Ostersunds FK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 45% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 30%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Ostersunds FK 3.33. GIF Sundsvall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIF Sundsvall at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 70% | Ostersunds FK 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 45% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.53 / Ostersunds FK 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.954 / def 1.021 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.997 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Ostersunds FK xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 45% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK?
Record (2 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 0W | Draws 1 | Ostersunds FK 1W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.95) and Ostersunds FK's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
45%
2.24
25%
3.97
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.75
1.22
Ostersunds FK xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
7%
15.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.22 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 60 games, going 13W 10D 37L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Ostersunds FK sit at 1.27 PPG from 60 outings (18W 22D 20L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Ostersunds FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 9W 5D 16L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Ostersunds FK have taken 0.97 points per game from 30 outings (6W 11D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.27 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 13W 10D 37L in their last 60 games (0.82 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 18W 22D 20L in their last 60 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Ostersunds FK away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.07 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Ostersunds FK go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2023, when Ostersunds FK won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
GIF Sundsvall
2
Draws
3
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK?
From 8 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, Ostersunds FK have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Ostersunds FK 1-0 GIF Sundsvall.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 67%, Ostersunds FK 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (GIF Sundsvall) and 37% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Ostersunds FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 53% of Ostersunds FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 37% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as GIF Sundsvall edge out Ostersunds FK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Ostersunds FK 1-0 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.53 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.22 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ostersunds FK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.95 / defence 1.02 against Ostersunds FK attack 1.00 / defence 0.95, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 45% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 30%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 60%, Ostersunds FK 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ostersunds FK arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with GIF Sundsvall winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.