Gefle IF 1-1 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gefle IF at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gefle IF vs Oddevold fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 27 as Gefle IF welcome Oddevold to Gavlevallen. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 October 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gefle IF stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gefle IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gefle IF's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Gavlevallen this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Gefle IF are significantly better at Gavlevallen than their overall form suggests.
Oddevold — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oddevold away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gefle IF 1.00 PPG, Oddevold 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Gefle IF, 1 for Oddevold and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Oddevold winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Gefle IF trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Oddevold trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gefle IF 54% versus Oddevold 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Gefle IF 69% | Oddevold 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 1.65 xG and Oddevold 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 1.034 / defence 1.227 | Oddevold attack 0.921 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.175. Data: 56 Gefle IF games / 26 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gefle IF 44% | Draw 26% | Oddevold 30%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Oddevold 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gefle IF at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gefle IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gefle IF 60% | Oddevold 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gefle IF vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Gavlevallen • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gefle IF 44% | Draw 26% | Oddevold 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Gefle IF 1.65 / Oddevold 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Gefle IF attack 1.034 / def 1.227 | Oddevold attack 0.921 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Gefle IF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Gefle IF xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Oddevold xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gefle IF vs Oddevold kick off?
Gefle IF vs Oddevold kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Gavlevallen.
What was the final score in Gefle IF vs Oddevold?
Gefle IF 1 - 1 Oddevold.
Where is Gefle IF vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at Gavlevallen.
What competition is Gefle IF vs Oddevold part of?
Gefle IF vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gefle IF vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives Gefle IF a 44% chance of winning, Oddevold a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gefle IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Gefle IF and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will Gefle IF vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Oddevold?
Record (1 meetings): Gefle IF 0W | Draws 0 | Oddevold 1W.
What form are Gefle IF and Oddevold in?
Gefle IF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Oddevold (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Gefle IF vs Oddevold?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gefle IF's attack at 1.03x the league average against Oddevold's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oddevold's attack versus Gefle IF's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gefle IF Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.89
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Gefle IF xG
Total xG
2.98
1.33
Oddevold xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
12%
8.51
6%
17.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.1 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gefle IF vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Gefle IF and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Gefle IF and 1.33 for Oddevold, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Gefle IF vs Oddevold?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gefle IF's recent record stands at 7W 7D 12L from 26 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Gefle IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oddevold, meanwhile, have gone 7W 10D 9L across 26 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Oddevold is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gefle IF on 1.08 PPG, Oddevold on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gefle IF have managed 5W 4D 4L from 13 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Oddevold's away record stands at 3W 4D 6L across 13 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gefle IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gefle IF are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Oddevold are on 1.12 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gefle IF
Blended
Oddevold
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gefle IF and Oddevold in coming into this match?
Gefle IF have gone 7W 7D 12L in their last 26 games (1.08 PPG), while Oddevold have gone 7W 10D 9L in their last 26 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gefle IF at home or Oddevold away?
Gefle IF's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gefle IF at home: 1.46 PPG; Oddevold away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gefle IF and Oddevold runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Gefle IF
1
Draws
1
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Oddevold?
From 2 meetings on record, Gefle IF have won 0, Oddevold have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gefle IF and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2024, when Gefle IF 1-1 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Gefle IF and Oddevold?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gefle IF 69%, Oddevold 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Gefle IF and 69% for Oddevold. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oddevold in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gefle IF home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gefle IF play Oddevold?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Gefle IF's games and 54% of Oddevold's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gefle IF vs Oddevold usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Gefle IF's matches and 69% of Oddevold's.
Do Gefle IF and Oddevold tend to score early?
Gefle IF have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Oddevold in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gefle IF and Oddevold share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gefle IF and Oddevold finished level at 1-1 at Gavlevallen, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gefle IF 1.65 xG and Oddevold 1.33 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gefle IF attack 1.03 / defence 1.23 against Oddevold attack 0.92 / defence 1.14, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gefle IF 44% | Draw 26% | Oddevold 30%, with Gefle IF to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gefle IF 69%, Oddevold 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gefle IF's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Oddevold's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gefle IF 1.08 PPG, Oddevold 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.