Falkenbergs FF 1-1 Ljungskile SK – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Falkenbergs FF at 68% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Falkenbergs FF face Ljungskile SK.

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Match Analysis

Falkenbergs FF host Ljungskile SK at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena in Superettan (matchday 1). Kick-off is Monday 6 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Falkenbergs FF have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Falkenbergs FF have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Falkenbergs FF 2.26 xG and Ljungskile SK 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Falkenbergs FF attack 1.074 / defence 0.921 | Ljungskile SK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.829 / away 1.147. Data: built from Falkenbergs FF's last 30 games and Ljungskile SK's last 0. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 68% | Draw 18% | Ljungskile SK 14%. Fair-value odds: Falkenbergs FF 1.47 | Draw 5.44 | Ljungskile SK 7.41. The model has a clear lean to Falkenbergs FF (68%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Falkenbergs FF at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's sample (Falkenbergs FF 30 games, Ljungskile SK 0) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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