Norrby IF 0-1 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Norrby IF at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Norrby IF vs IK brage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IK brage make the trip to Borås Arena to face Norrby IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Norrby IF have collected 2.00 PPG across 2 Superettan outings this season: 1W 1D 0L. Last five: W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Norrby IF have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
IK brage (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IK brage's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Norrby IF. A 0.80 PPG lead over IK brage (2.00 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Norrby IF register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, IK brage in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Norrby IF lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.59 xG and IK brage 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | IK brage attack 1.035 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.944 / away 1.168. Data: 0 Norrby IF games / 30 IK brage games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 41% | Draw 26% | IK brage 33%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | IK brage 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Norrby IF at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Norrby IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 41% | Draw 26% | IK brage 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Norrby IF 1.59 / IK brage 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | IK brage attack 1.035 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.944 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
1.39
IK brage xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs IK brage kick off?
Norrby IF vs IK brage kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs IK brage?
Norrby IF 0 - 1 IK brage.
Where is Norrby IF vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs IK brage part of?
Norrby IF vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 41% chance of winning, IK brage a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Norrby IF and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and IK brage?
Record (4 meetings): Norrby IF 1W | Draws 1 | IK brage 2W.
What form are Norrby IF and IK brage in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D. IK brage (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Norrby IF's attack at 0.85x the league average against IK brage's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (1.03x) against Norrby IF's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
41%
2.42
26%
3.82
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
2.98
1.39
IK brage xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
10%
9.74
7%
15.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Norrby IF and 1.39 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Norrby IF come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 1D 0L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D. It's still early in the season for Norrby IF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, IK brage sit at 3.00 PPG from 2 outings (2W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for IK brage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
IK brage carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Norrby IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Norrby IF are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 3.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Norrby IF's scoring rate against IK brage's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Norrby IF have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; IK brage in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Early Season
IK brage
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norrby IF and IK brage in coming into this match?
Norrby IF have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while IK brage have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Norrby IF have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Norrby IF
1
Draws
3
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and IK brage?
From 5 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 1, IK brage have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Norrby IF 0-1 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between Norrby IF and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norrby IF play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Norrby IF's games and 100% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Norrby IF vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Norrby IF's matches and 100% of IK brage's.
Do Norrby IF and IK brage tend to score early?
Norrby IF have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, IK brage in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IK brage defy the odds to beat Norrby IF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Norrby IF 0-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.59 xG and IK brage 1.39 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Norrby IF fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against IK brage attack 1.03 / defence 0.96, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 41% | Draw 26% | IK brage 33%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual IK brage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norrby IF 50%, IK brage 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, IK brage arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Norrby IF managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. IK brage managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.