Vasteras SK FK 2-0 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasteras SK FK host Orgryte IS at Hitachi Energy Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 July 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Hitachi Energy Arena, Vasteras SK FK have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Vasteras SK FK carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, Orgryte IS 1, with 6 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 2–0 with Vasteras SK FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Orgryte IS trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 54% versus Orgryte IS 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 65% | Orgryte IS 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 2.55 xG and Orgryte IS 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.010 / defence 1.274 | Orgryte IS attack 0.599 / defence 1.500. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.368. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.500 — this is suppressing Vasteras SK FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Vasteras SK FK games / 13 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 69% | Draw 19% | Orgryte IS 12%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Orgryte IS 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Vasteras SK FK (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.55 / 1.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasteras SK FK at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.59 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Vasteras SK FK 60% | Orgryte IS 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Friday 24 Jul 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 69% | Draw 19% | Orgryte IS 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 61% | xG Vasteras SK FK 2.55 / Orgryte IS 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.010 / def 1.274 | Orgryte IS attack 0.599 / def 1.500 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Orgryte IS xG
61%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 24 July 2026 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS?
Vasteras SK FK 2 - 0 Orgryte IS.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 69% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS?
Record (8 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 1W | Draws 6 | Orgryte IS 1W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Orgryte IS (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vasteras SK FK's attack rating (1.01) and Orgryte IS's defence rating (1.50), the model arrives at 2.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.9%), 1-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
69%
1.46
19%
5.23
12%
8.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
3.59
1.04
Orgryte IS xG
1.46
69%
Home win
5.23
19%
Draw
8.22
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
8%
12.81
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
1%
105.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.04 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vasteras SK FK come into this having played 43 games, going 25W 9D 9L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.53 PPG from 43 outings (18W 12D 13L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasteras SK FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vasteras SK FK's home form reads 12W 7D 2L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.38 points per game from 21 outings (8W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.65 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 25W 9D 9L in their last 43 games (1.95 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 18W 12D 13L in their last 43 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Orgryte IS away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 2.05 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Orgryte IS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Orgryte IS in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vasteras SK FK go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Vasteras SK FK
6
Draws
1
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS?
From 9 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, Orgryte IS have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 2-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 52%, Orgryte IS 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Vasteras SK FK) and 52% (Orgryte IS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Orgryte IS in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 52% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 52% of Orgryte IS's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasteras SK FK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Orgryte IS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Orgryte IS 2-0 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 2.55 xG and Orgryte IS 1.04 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Orgryte IS landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 1.01 / defence 1.27 against Orgryte IS attack 0.60 / defence 1.50, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 69% | Draw 19% | Orgryte IS 12%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 65%, Orgryte IS 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.53. That form edge translated into the three points. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.