Vasteras SK FK 0-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasteras SK FK host IF Elfsborg at Hitachi Energy Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 April 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vasteras SK FK haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Hitachi Energy Arena, Vasteras SK FK have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Vasteras SK FK) versus 1.90 (IF Elfsborg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
IF Elfsborg trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 67% versus IF Elfsborg 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 60% | IF Elfsborg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.17 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.860 / defence 1.150 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.022 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.381. Data: 1 Vasteras SK FK games / 31 IF Elfsborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 28% | Draw 25% | IF Elfsborg 48%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | IF Elfsborg 2.08. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vasteras SK FK 70% | IF Elfsborg 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 28% | Draw 25% | IF Elfsborg 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.17 / IF Elfsborg 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.860 / def 1.150 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.022 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.62
IF Elfsborg xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg?
Vasteras SK FK 0 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 28% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and IF Elfsborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and IF Elfsborg in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vasteras SK FK's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
28%
3.63
25%
4.07
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.79
1.62
IF Elfsborg xG
3.63
28%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
5%
18.40
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.62 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Vasteras SK FK have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 10W 10D 10L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. Vasteras SK FK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 20W 4D 6L from 30 games, 2.13 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L.
Put side by side, IF Elfsborg are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vasteras SK FK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Vasteras SK FK have posted 1.60 PPG from 15 outings (6W 6D 3L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 10W 1D 4L from 15 away games — 2.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.97 scored and 0.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vasteras SK FK have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 10W 10D 10L in their last 30 games (1.33 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 20W 4D 6L in their last 30 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.60 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Vasteras SK FK
1
Draws
2
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and IF Elfsborg?
From 3 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 0, IF Elfsborg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 2-2 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 73%, IF Elfsborg 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Vasteras SK FK and 60% for IF Elfsborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 40%; IF Elfsborg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play IF Elfsborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Vasteras SK FK's games and 40% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 60% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out Vasteras SK FK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Vasteras SK FK 0-1 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.17 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.62 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vasteras SK FK fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.02 / defence 0.91, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 28% | Draw 25% | IF Elfsborg 48%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 60%, IF Elfsborg 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.