Mjallby AIF 3-0 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 38%, yet in-form Mjallby AIF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Strandvallen plays host to Mjallby AIF versus IFK Norrkoping in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mjallby AIF have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Strandvallen this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Strandvallen this season.
IFK Norrkoping's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
IFK Norrkoping's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Mjallby AIF's favour (1.30 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mjallby AIF lead 1W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2023, ended 2–0 with Mjallby AIF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
IFK Norrkoping — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 43% versus IFK Norrkoping 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 38% | IFK Norrkoping 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.48 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.959 / defence 0.987 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.987 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.547. Data: 31 Mjallby AIF games / 31 IFK Norrkoping games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 37% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 38%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | IFK Norrkoping 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Norrkoping are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mjallby AIF (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 50% | IFK Norrkoping 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 37% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.48 / IFK Norrkoping 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.959 / def 0.987 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.987 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.547 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.50
IFK Norrkoping xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Mjallby AIF 3 - 0 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 37% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (6 meetings): Mjallby AIF 1W | Draws 3 | IFK Norrkoping 2W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against IFK Norrkoping's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (0.99x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
37%
2.68
24%
4.11
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.98
1.50
IFK Norrkoping xG
2.68
37%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
8%
12.09
9%
11.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.50 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 23W 15D 22L from 60 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five.
IFK Norrkoping, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 25L across 60 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.25 for IFK Norrkoping. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 9W 9D 12L from 30 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Norrkoping's away record stands at 8W 9D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.42 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 20W 15D 25L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.20 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or IFK Norrkoping been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, IFK Norrkoping in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 3-0 on 6 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
4
Draws
2
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 4, IFK Norrkoping have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Mjallby AIF 2-1 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Mjallby AIF, 70% for IFK Norrkoping — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mjallby AIF) and 60% (IFK Norrkoping). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 13% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Mjallby AIF's games and 70% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 60% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mjallby AIF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of IFK Norrkoping.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat IFK Norrkoping 3-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.48 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.50 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mjallby AIF beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IFK Norrkoping landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.99 / defence 1.07, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 37% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 38%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 38%, IFK Norrkoping 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.40 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.