Varbergs BoIS FC 1-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 38%, yet in-form Degerfors IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 28 as Varbergs BoIS FC welcome Degerfors IF to Varberg Energi Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 October 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 1W 0D 9L at Varberg Energi Arena — 0.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Degerfors IF's 1.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Varbergs BoIS FC's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Varbergs BoIS FC, 0 for Degerfors IF and 4 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Degerfors IF trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 47% versus Degerfors IF 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 60% | Degerfors IF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.36 xG and Degerfors IF 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.718 / defence 1.377 | Degerfors IF attack 0.796 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.204. Varbergs BoIS FC's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Varbergs BoIS FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 57 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 38% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 36%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Degerfors IF 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Degerfors IF (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Varbergs BoIS FC 40% | Degerfors IF 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 38% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.36 / Degerfors IF 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.718 / def 1.377 | Degerfors IF attack 0.796 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Degerfors IF xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF?
Varbergs BoIS FC 1 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 38% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF?
Record (5 meetings): Varbergs BoIS FC 1W | Draws 4 | Degerfors IF 0W.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Varbergs BoIS FC's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Degerfors IF's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus Varbergs BoIS FC's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
38%
2.64
26%
3.85
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.68
1.32
Degerfors IF xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
10%
9.87
9%
10.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.32 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Varbergs BoIS FC come into this having played 57 games, going 12W 12D 33L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 0.96 PPG from 57 outings (14W 13D 30L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Varbergs BoIS FC on 0.84 PPG, Degerfors IF on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Varbergs BoIS FC's home form reads 6W 8D 14L across 28 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 0.61 points per game from 28 outings (4W 5D 19L).
The Goals Picture
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.02 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 12W 12D 33L in their last 57 games (0.84 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 14W 13D 30L in their last 57 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Degerfors IF away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 0.93 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 5 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
7
Draws
0
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF?
From 8 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, Degerfors IF have won 0, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2024, when Varbergs BoIS FC 0-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 39%, Degerfors IF 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 57% (Degerfors IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC have failed to score in 50% of games; Degerfors IF in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 57% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Varbergs BoIS FC's matches and 57% of Degerfors IF's.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF finished level at 1-1 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.36 xG and Degerfors IF 1.32 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.72 / defence 1.38 against Degerfors IF attack 0.80 / defence 1.30, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 38% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 36%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 60%, Degerfors IF 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 0.84 PPG, Degerfors IF 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.