Kalmar FF 1-3 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Varnamo at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kalmar FF vs IFK Varnamo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kalmar FF host IFK Varnamo at Guldfågeln Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 29 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Kalmar FF — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Kalmar FF's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, IFK Varnamo have recorded 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
IFK Varnamo away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour IFK Varnamo — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Kalmar FF: 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for IFK Varnamo, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 May 2023, ended Kalmar FF 1–0 IFK Varnamo — a Kalmar FF win.
The head-to-head data gives Kalmar FF an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Kalmar FF trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
IFK Varnamo trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 44% versus IFK Varnamo 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 40% | IFK Varnamo 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.09 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.784 / defence 0.865 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.246 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.201. Kalmar FF's attack rating of 0.784 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. IFK Varnamo have an above-average attack rating of 1.246, which lifts their away xG to 1.29. Data: built from Kalmar FF's last 57 games and IFK Varnamo's last 57.
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 31% | Draw 28% | IFK Varnamo 41%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 3.21 | Draw 3.62 | IFK Varnamo 2.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Varnamo at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kalmar FF 40% (last 10 home games) | IFK Varnamo 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 28 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 31% | Draw 28% | IFK Varnamo 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Kalmar FF 1.09 / IFK Varnamo 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.784 / def 0.865 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.246 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.29
IFK Varnamo xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kalmar FF vs IFK Varnamo FAQs
What time does Kalmar FF vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Kalmar FF vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Kalmar FF 1 - 3 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Kalmar FF vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Kalmar FF vs IFK Varnamo is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 28) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 31% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Kalmar FF and IFK Varnamo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Kalmar FF vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kalmar FF's attack at 0.78x the league average against IFK Varnamo's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus Kalmar FF's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kalmar FF's last 57 games and IFK Varnamo's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
31%
3.21
28%
3.62
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.38
1.29
IFK Varnamo xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
9%
11.71
14%
7.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 12.0 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kalmar FF vs IFK Varnamo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.29 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kalmar FF come into this having played 57 games, going 27W 12D 18L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, IFK Varnamo sit at 1.37 PPG from 57 outings (22W 12D 23L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kalmar FF on 1.63 PPG, IFK Varnamo on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kalmar FF's home form reads 17W 5D 6L across their last 28 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, IFK Varnamo have taken 1.36 points per game from their last 28 away games (11W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.18 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Kalmar FF (Home) vs IFK Varnamo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kalmar FF
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
❓ Kalmar FF vs IFK Varnamo Form FAQs
What form are Kalmar FF and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 27W 12D 18L in their last 57 games (1.63 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 22W 12D 23L in their last 57 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or IFK Varnamo away?
Kalmar FF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 2.00 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent in our data was on 15 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kalmar FF have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Kalmar FF's record when hosting IFK Varnamo specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Kalmar FF
0
Draws
1
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Kalmar FF vs IFK Varnamo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and IFK Varnamo?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Kalmar FF have won 5, IFK Varnamo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 September 2024: Kalmar FF 3-1 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and IFK Varnamo?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 32%, IFK Varnamo 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Kalmar FF) and 61% (IFK Varnamo).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; IFK Varnamo in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kalmar FF vs IFK Varnamo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kalmar FF and IFK Varnamo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 54% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kalmar FF and IFK Varnamo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 61% of IFK Varnamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and IFK Varnamo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 75% of IFK Varnamo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Varnamo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kalmar FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Kalmar FF 1-3 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.09 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.29 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. IFK Varnamo outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.78 / defence 0.86 against IFK Varnamo attack 1.25 / defence 0.95, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 31% | Draw 28% | IFK Varnamo 41%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 40%, IFK Varnamo 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.63 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.