Malmo FF 1-0 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Malmo FF at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Malmo FF face Vasteras SK FK.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Eleda Stadion plays host to Malmo FF versus Vasteras SK FK in Allsvenskan (matchday 4). Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form
Malmo FF (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Malmo FF's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Vasteras SK FK's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Vasteras SK FK have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for Malmo FF against 2.00 for Vasteras SK FK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Malmo FF — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Malmo FF 43% versus Vasteras SK FK 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Malmo FF 67% | Vasteras SK FK 60%). Note also that Vasteras SK FK surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Malmo FF recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Malmo FF 1.75 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Malmo FF attack 1.178 / defence 0.787 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.717 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.386. Vasteras SK FK's attack rating of 0.717 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Malmo FF have a tight defence (rating 0.787), which is pulling Vasteras SK FK's projected output down. Data: built from Malmo FF's last 33 games and Vasteras SK FK's last 3. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Malmo FF 60% | Draw 23% | Vasteras SK FK 16%. Fair-value odds: Malmo FF 1.66 | Draw 4.31 | Vasteras SK FK 6.10. The model has a clear lean to Malmo FF (60%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Malmo FF as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Malmo FF 40% (last 10 home games) | Vasteras SK FK 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Malmo FF 33 games, Vasteras SK FK 3) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 4 | Venue: Eleda Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Malmo FF 60% | Draw 23% | Vasteras SK FK 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Malmo FF 1.75 / Vasteras SK FK 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Malmo FF attack 1.178 / def 0.787 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.717 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Malmo FF xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Vasteras SK FK xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK FAQs
What time does Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Eleda Stadion.
What was the final score in Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Malmo FF 1 - 0 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Eleda Stadion.
What competition is Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 4) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Malmo FF a 60% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Malmo FF and Vasteras SK FK will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Malmo FF's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Vasteras SK FK's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Vasteras SK FK's attack (0.72x) against Malmo FF's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from Malmo FF's last 33 games and Vasteras SK FK's last 3, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.3%), 2-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
60%
1.66
23%
4.31
16%
6.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Malmo FF xG
Total xG
2.53
0.78
Vasteras SK FK xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
6.10
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
3%
35.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Malmo FF and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Malmo FF and 0.78 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Malmo FF's recent record stands at 20W 4D 6L from 30 games, a 2.13 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Vasteras SK FK, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 10L across 30 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Malmo FF by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vasteras SK FK heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Malmo FF have managed 11W 3D 1L from their last 15 home games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vasteras SK FK's away record stands at 4W 4D 7L across their last 15 away games, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Malmo FF are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.67 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vasteras SK FK in 67%.
Defensively: Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Malmo FF
Current Season
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
Malmo FF (Home) vs Vasteras SK FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Malmo FF
Current Season
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
❓ Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK Form FAQs
What form are Malmo FF and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Malmo FF have gone 20W 4D 6L in their last 30 games (2.13 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 10W 10D 10L in their last 30 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Malmo FF at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Malmo FF's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Malmo FF at home: 2.40 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Malmo FF or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Malmo FF and Vasteras SK FK, the earliest from April 2024. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Vasteras SK FK have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Malmo FF have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Vasteras SK FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Malmo FF
1
Draws
2
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Vasteras SK FK?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Malmo FF have won 1, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Malmo FF and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Vasteras SK FK 2-0 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between Malmo FF and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Malmo FF 47%, Vasteras SK FK 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Malmo FF and 47% for Vasteras SK FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Malmo FF keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Malmo FF home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Malmo FF and Vasteras SK FK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Malmo FF's recent matches and 60% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Malmo FF and Vasteras SK FK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Malmo FF's matches and 47% of Vasteras SK FK's.
Do Malmo FF and Vasteras SK FK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Malmo FF's recent matches and 87% of Vasteras SK FK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Malmo FF edge out Vasteras SK FK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Vasteras SK FK 1-0 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.75 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.78 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.18 / defence 0.79 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.72 / defence 1.07, drawn from 33/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 60% | Draw 23% | Vasteras SK FK 16%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 67%, Vasteras SK FK 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Malmo FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.