Sirius 0-1 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 4 as Sirius welcome IFK Varnamo to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sirius — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sirius's home record at Studenternas IP: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Varnamo have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, IFK Varnamo have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Sirius) versus 2.00 (IFK Varnamo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sirius, 1 for IFK Varnamo and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Sirius winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sirius trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
IFK Varnamo trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 47% versus IFK Varnamo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 53% | IFK Varnamo 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.92 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.269 / defence 0.852 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.121 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.406. Sirius carry an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — their λ of 1.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 33 Sirius games / 33 IFK Varnamo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sirius 51% | Draw 22% | IFK Varnamo 27%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | IFK Varnamo 3.70. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 50% | IFK Varnamo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 51% | Draw 22% | IFK Varnamo 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Sirius 1.92 / IFK Varnamo 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.269 / def 0.852 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.121 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Sirius (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.34
IFK Varnamo xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Sirius vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs IFK Varnamo?
Sirius 0 - 1 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Sirius vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Sirius vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 51% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sirius and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IFK Varnamo?
Record (4 meetings): Sirius 2W | Draws 1 | IFK Varnamo 1W.
What form are Sirius and IFK Varnamo in?
Sirius (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sirius's attack rating (1.27) and IFK Varnamo's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
51%
1.96
22%
4.51
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Sirius xG
Total xG
3.27
1.34
IFK Varnamo xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
15%
6.85
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
4%
25.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Sirius and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Sirius and 1.34 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sirius's recent record stands at 21W 14D 25L from 60 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
IFK Varnamo, meanwhile, have gone 23W 13D 24L across 60 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sirius on 1.28 PPG, IFK Varnamo on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sirius have managed 13W 3D 14L from 30 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Varnamo's away record stands at 12W 5D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.18 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Current Season
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 games (1.28 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 23W 13D 24L in their last 60 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or IFK Varnamo away?
Sirius's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.40 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Sirius or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and IFK Varnamo runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Sirius's record when hosting IFK Varnamo specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Sirius
1
Draws
2
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IFK Varnamo?
From 8 meetings on record, Sirius have won 5, IFK Varnamo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Sirius 3-1 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and IFK Varnamo?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 47%, IFK Varnamo 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sirius) and 63% (IFK Varnamo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; IFK Varnamo in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Sirius's recent matches and 57% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Sirius's matches and 63% of IFK Varnamo's.
Do Sirius and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Varnamo defy the odds to beat Sirius 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Sirius 0-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.92 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.34 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sirius fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.27 / defence 0.85 against IFK Varnamo attack 1.12 / defence 1.05, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 51% | Draw 22% | IFK Varnamo 27%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual IFK Varnamo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 53%, IFK Varnamo 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.28 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.