Hammarby FF 3-0 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK encounter.

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Analysis

Vasteras SK FK make the trip to 3Arena to face Hammarby FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Hammarby FF have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Hammarby FF's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at 3Arena this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at 3Arena.

Vasteras SK FK (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Vasteras SK FK haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Vasteras SK FK's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Hammarby FF's favour (2.00 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Hammarby FF 1W, Vasteras SK FK 1W, 0D.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Vasteras SK FK winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Hammarby FF — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

Vasteras SK FK — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 50% versus Vasteras SK FK 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 57% | Vasteras SK FK 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 2.77 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.625 / defence 0.816 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.893 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.335. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.625 — their λ of 2.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 35 Hammarby FF games / 5 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 74% | Draw 16% | Vasteras SK FK 10%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.35 | Draw 6.25 | Vasteras SK FK 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (74%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hammarby FF 40% | Vasteras SK FK 50%.

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