Hammarby FF 1-2 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hammarby FF host Mjallby AIF at 3Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 22 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Hammarby FF at 3Arena this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at 3Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Mjallby AIF — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mjallby AIF away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hammarby FF 1.80 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Hammarby FF, 3 for Mjallby AIF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2025, ended 1–3 with Mjallby AIF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Mjallby AIF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 45% versus Mjallby AIF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 53% | Mjallby AIF 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.60 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.304 / defence 0.724 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.345 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.355. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.304 — their λ of 1.60 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Mjallby AIF have an above-average attack strength of 1.345 — the away xG of 1.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Hammarby FF's defence rating of 0.724 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Hammarby FF games / 40 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 44% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 32%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Mjallby AIF 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data: Hammarby FF 30% | Mjallby AIF 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 22 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 44% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Hammarby FF 1.60 / Mjallby AIF 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.304 / def 0.724 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.345 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Mjallby AIF xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 22 May 2025 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Hammarby FF 1 - 2 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 44% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF?
Record (8 meetings): Hammarby FF 4W | Draws 1 | Mjallby AIF 3W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
44%
2.27
24%
4.10
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.92
1.32
Mjallby AIF xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
12%
8.51
6%
15.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.32 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hammarby FF come into this having played 60 games, going 27W 17D 16L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.52 PPG from 60 outings (26W 13D 21L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.63 PPG, Mjallby AIF on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hammarby FF's home form reads 17W 9D 4L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.47 points per game from 30 outings (13W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.27 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 27W 17D 16L in their last 60 games (1.63 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 26W 13D 21L in their last 60 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.00 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hammarby FF
1
Draws
4
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 5, Mjallby AIF have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hammarby FF 3-0 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 60%, Mjallby AIF 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Hammarby FF) and 43% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 40% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 43% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mjallby AIF defy the odds to beat Hammarby FF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Hammarby FF 1-2 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.60 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.32 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.30 / defence 0.72 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.34 / defence 0.87, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 44% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 32%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 53%, Mjallby AIF 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.63 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.