Hammarby FF 2-0 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 3 as Hammarby FF welcome Djurgardens IF to 3Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Hammarby FF at 3Arena this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at 3Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Djurgardens IF stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Hammarby FF) versus 1.50 (Djurgardens IF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Hammarby FF, 2 for Djurgardens IF and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2024, ended 2–0 with Hammarby FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hammarby FF trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Djurgardens IF trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 45% versus Djurgardens IF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 53% | Djurgardens IF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.53 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.304 / defence 0.814 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.930 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.281. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.304 — their λ of 1.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 32 Hammarby FF games / 32 Djurgardens IF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 50% | Draw 26% | Djurgardens IF 24%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Djurgardens IF 4.17. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 30% | Djurgardens IF 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 50% | Draw 26% | Djurgardens IF 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Hammarby FF 1.53 / Djurgardens IF 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.304 / def 0.814 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.930 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Djurgardens IF xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Hammarby FF 2 - 0 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 50% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF?
Record (7 meetings): Hammarby FF 3W | Draws 2 | Djurgardens IF 2W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hammarby FF's attack rating (1.30) and Djurgardens IF's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
50%
1.98
26%
3.89
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.50
0.97
Djurgardens IF xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
5%
19.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.97 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 27W 17D 16L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 31W 10D 19L from 60 games, 1.72 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.63 PPG, Djurgardens IF on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 2.00 PPG from 30 outings (17W 9D 4L).
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 13W 4D 13L from 30 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.43 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Djurgardens IF in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 27W 17D 16L in their last 60 games (1.63 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 31W 10D 19L in their last 60 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.00 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Djurgardens IF won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hammarby FF
4
Draws
2
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 4, Djurgardens IF have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Djurgardens IF 1-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 60%, Djurgardens IF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Hammarby FF) and 53% (Djurgardens IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Djurgardens IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Hammarby FF's games and 50% of Djurgardens IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Hammarby FF's matches and 53% of Djurgardens IF's.
Do Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Djurgardens IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Djurgardens IF 2-0 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.53 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.97 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Djurgardens IF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.30 / defence 0.81 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.93 / defence 0.85, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 50% | Draw 26% | Djurgardens IF 24%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 53%, Djurgardens IF 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.63 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.