Djurgardens IF 0-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ostersunds FK make the trip to Tele2 Arena to face Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Wednesday 22 July 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Djurgardens IF (all games): 4W 1D 4L across 9 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.44 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 1.11 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF's home record at Tele2 Arena: 2W 1D 1L from 4 Allsvenskan appearances (1.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena.
Ostersunds FK's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 2D 5L from 9 games (0.89 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.89 per game is modest, conceding 1.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.75 exceeds their overall 0.89 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Djurgardens IF's 1.44 PPG return is 0.55 points per game ahead of Ostersunds FK's 0.89 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Djurgardens IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ostersunds FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 33% versus Ostersunds FK 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 56% | Ostersunds FK 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.38 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.249 / defence 1.137 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.740 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.117. Data: 9 Djurgardens IF games / 9 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 47% | Draw 27% | Ostersunds FK 26%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Ostersunds FK 3.85. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Djurgardens IF at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 50% | Ostersunds FK 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Jul 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 47% | Draw 27% | Ostersunds FK 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.38 / Ostersunds FK 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.249 / def 1.137 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.740 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Ostersunds FK xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 22 July 2020 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Djurgardens IF 0 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 47% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Ostersunds FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Ostersunds FK in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 4W-1D-4L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.11 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.56 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.25) and Ostersunds FK's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.74x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
47%
2.13
27%
3.65
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.32
0.94
Ostersunds FK xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
6%
15.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.94 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 9 games, going 4W 1D 4L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ostersunds FK sit at 0.89 PPG from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Ostersunds FK have taken 1.75 points per game from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 0.89 PPG overall record — Ostersunds FK travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 0.89 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 4W 1D 4L in their last 9 games (1.44 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.75 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Ostersunds FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ostersunds FK in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Djurgardens IF have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 0-3 on 26 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
0
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Ostersunds FK?
From 4 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 2, Ostersunds FK have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2021, when Ostersunds FK 0-3 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Ostersunds FK?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 50%, Ostersunds FK 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Djurgardens IF) and 25% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Ostersunds FK in 50%; Ostersunds FK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 25% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 25% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Djurgardens IF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 10, as Djurgardens IF and Ostersunds FK drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.38 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.94 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Djurgardens IF fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Ostersunds FK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.25 / defence 1.14 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.74 / defence 1.00, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 47% | Draw 27% | Ostersunds FK 26%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 56%, Ostersunds FK 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.