Djurgardens IF 1-0 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 37%, yet in-form IF Elfsborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IF Elfsborg make the trip to 3Arena to face Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 July 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Djurgardens IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 4W 4D 2L at 3Arena — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. IF Elfsborg are 0.70 PPG clear of Djurgardens IF in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Djurgardens IF 3W, IF Elfsborg 3W, 2D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2025, ended 0–4 with IF Elfsborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Djurgardens IF — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
IF Elfsborg — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 44% versus IF Elfsborg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 40% | IF Elfsborg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.20 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.057 / defence 0.909 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.029 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.229. Data: 45 Djurgardens IF games / 45 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 37% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 35%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | IF Elfsborg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IF Elfsborg (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Djurgardens IF 70% | IF Elfsborg 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Jul 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 37% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.20 / IF Elfsborg 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.057 / def 0.909 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.029 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.15
IF Elfsborg xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 July 2025 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Djurgardens IF 1 - 0 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 37% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg?
Record (8 meetings): Djurgardens IF 3W | Draws 2 | IF Elfsborg 3W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.06) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (1.03x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
37%
2.69
28%
3.57
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.34
1.15
IF Elfsborg xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
11%
9.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.0 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.15 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 21W 9D 15L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 22W 8D 15L from 45 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 1.64 for IF Elfsborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 1.68 PPG from 22 outings (10W 7D 5L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 8W 4D 10L from 22 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.76 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 21W 9D 15L in their last 45 games (1.60 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 22W 8D 15L in their last 45 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.68 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 0-4 on 22 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when IF Elfsborg 2-1 Djurgardens IF.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 50%, IF Elfsborg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Djurgardens IF) and 54% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 54% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 54% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out IF Elfsborg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat IF Elfsborg 1-0 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.20 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.15 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IF Elfsborg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.06 / defence 0.91 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.03 / defence 0.81, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 37% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 35%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 40%, IF Elfsborg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.60 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.