Djurgardens IF 1-1 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 11 as Djurgardens IF welcome BK Hacken to 3Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 May 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Djurgardens IF have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Djurgardens IF's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at 3Arena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
BK Hacken — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
BK Hacken's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Djurgardens IF register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, BK Hacken in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Djurgardens IF, 2 for BK Hacken and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Djurgardens IF trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
BK Hacken trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 47% versus BK Hacken 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 47% | BK Hacken 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.21 xG and BK Hacken 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 0.798 / defence 0.900 | BK Hacken attack 0.938 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.354. Djurgardens IF's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Djurgardens IF games / 40 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 37% | Draw 28% | BK Hacken 34%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | BK Hacken 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Djurgardens IF 60% | BK Hacken 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 37% | Draw 28% | BK Hacken 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.21 / BK Hacken 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 0.798 / def 0.900 | BK Hacken attack 0.938 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.14
BK Hacken xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 25 May 2025 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Djurgardens IF 1 - 1 BK Hacken.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken part of?
Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 37% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken?
Record (7 meetings): Djurgardens IF 4W | Draws 1 | BK Hacken 2W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against BK Hacken's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
37%
2.68
28%
3.52
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.35
1.14
BK Hacken xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
12%
8.40
10%
9.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.9 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.14 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 60 games, going 31W 10D 19L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, BK Hacken sit at 1.65 PPG from 60 outings (30W 9D 21L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.72 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 18W 6D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, BK Hacken have taken 1.20 points per game from 30 outings (10W 6D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BK Hacken's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 2.05 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 63%.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
BK Hacken
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 31W 10D 19L in their last 60 games (1.72 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 30W 9D 21L in their last 60 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or BK Hacken away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.00 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 6 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Djurgardens IF have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jul 2025, when Djurgardens IF won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
2
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 6, BK Hacken have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 6 July 2026, when BK Hacken 2-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 43%, BK Hacken 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Djurgardens IF) and 63% (BK Hacken).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; BK Hacken in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play BK Hacken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 50% of BK Hacken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 63% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at 3Arena, Regular Season - 11, as Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.21 xG and BK Hacken 1.14 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 0.80 / defence 0.90 against BK Hacken attack 0.94 / defence 1.10, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 37% | Draw 28% | BK Hacken 34%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 47%, BK Hacken 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.72 PPG, BK Hacken 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.