Degerfors IF 1-0 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates IFK Varnamo at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 2 as Degerfors IF welcome IFK Varnamo to Stora Valla. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 April 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Degerfors IF — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Degerfors IF haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Degerfors IF have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stora Valla — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Varnamo stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
IFK Varnamo's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour IFK Varnamo — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Degerfors IF, 2 for IFK Varnamo and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Degerfors IF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 60% versus IFK Varnamo 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 63% | IFK Varnamo 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.14 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.860 / defence 1.150 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.935 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.346. Data: 1 Degerfors IF games / 31 IFK Varnamo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 30% | Draw 26% | IFK Varnamo 44%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | IFK Varnamo 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Varnamo at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 60% | IFK Varnamo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 30% | Draw 26% | IFK Varnamo 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Degerfors IF 1.14 / IFK Varnamo 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.860 / def 1.150 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.935 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.45
IFK Varnamo xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Degerfors IF 1 - 0 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 30% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo?
Record (4 meetings): Degerfors IF 1W | Draws 1 | IFK Varnamo 2W.
What form are Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Degerfors IF's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against IFK Varnamo's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
30%
3.37
26%
3.83
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.58
1.45
IFK Varnamo xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
7%
14.34
14%
7.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.45 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 7W 5D 18L from 30 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. Degerfors IF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
IFK Varnamo, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 12L across 30 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Degerfors IF on 0.87 PPG, IFK Varnamo on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 5W 2D 8L from 15 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Varnamo's away record stands at 5W 6D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.00 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 7W 5D 18L in their last 30 games (0.87 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 8W 10D 12L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or IFK Varnamo away?
IFK Varnamo's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.13 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 August 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Degerfors IF's record when hosting IFK Varnamo specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
3
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo?
From 6 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 2, IFK Varnamo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 18 August 2025, when IFK Varnamo 3-2 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 67%, IFK Varnamo 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Degerfors IF) and 27% (IFK Varnamo).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo in 40%; IFK Varnamo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 40% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 27% of IFK Varnamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Degerfors IF defy the odds to beat IFK Varnamo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat IFK Varnamo 1-0 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.14 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.45 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IFK Varnamo landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.94 / defence 0.92, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 30% | Draw 26% | IFK Varnamo 44%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Degerfors IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 63%, IFK Varnamo 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 0.87 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.