Gais 2-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 46%, yet in-form Gais provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gais vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Degerfors IF make the trip to Gamla Ullevi to face Gais in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 April 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Gais (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gais's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gamla Ullevi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Degerfors IF have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Degerfors IF haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Degerfors IF's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Gais. A 1.00 PPG lead over Degerfors IF (1.60 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Gais half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 43% versus Degerfors IF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 50% | Degerfors IF 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.13 xG and Degerfors IF 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.871 / defence 0.909 | Degerfors IF attack 1.328 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.248. Degerfors IF have an above-average attack strength of 1.328 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 Gais games / 2 Degerfors IF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gais 29% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 46%. Fair-value odds: Gais 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Degerfors IF 2.17. Degerfors IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Degerfors IF at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gais (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Gais 30% | Degerfors IF 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 29% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Gais 1.13 / Degerfors IF 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.871 / def 0.909 | Degerfors IF attack 1.328 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Degerfors IF xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Gais vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Degerfors IF?
Gais 2 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is Gais vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Degerfors IF part of?
Gais vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 29% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Gais and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Degerfors IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gais and Degerfors IF in?
Gais (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Degerfors IF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gais's attack at 0.87x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (1.33x) against Gais's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
29%
3.51
26%
3.90
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Gais xG
Total xG
2.64
1.51
Degerfors IF xG
3.51
29%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
6%
15.81
15%
6.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Gais and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Gais and 1.51 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Gais have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 14W 6D 10L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Degerfors IF's form line: 7W 5D 18L from 30 games, 0.87 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L. Degerfors IF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Gais are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Degerfors IF.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gais have posted 2.07 PPG from 15 outings (9W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Gais are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 2W 3D 10L from 15 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gais come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gais are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.00 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Current Season
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 14W 6D 10L in their last 30 games (1.60 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 7W 5D 18L in their last 30 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Degerfors IF away?
Gais's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 2.07 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Gais or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gais won 0-3 on 19 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gais have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Gais
1
Draws
0
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Degerfors IF?
From 3 meetings on record, Gais have won 2, Degerfors IF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Gais 1-1 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Degerfors IF?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 40%, Degerfors IF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Gais) and 60% (Degerfors IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 13% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Gais have failed to score in 33% of games; Degerfors IF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Gais's recent matches and 53% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gais vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Gais's matches and 60% of Degerfors IF's.
Do Gais and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gais cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Degerfors IF 2-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.13 xG and Degerfors IF 1.51 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Gais beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Degerfors IF landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.87 / defence 0.91 against Degerfors IF attack 1.33 / defence 0.96, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gais 29% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 46%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Gais win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 50%, Degerfors IF 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.