BK Hacken 3-5 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 63% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as BK Hacken face IF Elfsborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
IF Elfsborg travel to Bravida Arena to take on BK Hacken in Allsvenskan (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 July 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, BK Hacken stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
BK Hacken's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — BK Hacken are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
IF Elfsborg — last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
IF Elfsborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: BK Hacken 1.60 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for BK Hacken, 1 for IF Elfsborg and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Jul 2023, ended BK Hacken 3–1 IF Elfsborg — a BK Hacken win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
BK Hacken trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
IF Elfsborg trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 66% versus IF Elfsborg 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (BK Hacken 75% | IF Elfsborg 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 2.27 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.217 / defence 1.063 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.799 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.325. IF Elfsborg's attack rating of 0.799 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.13. Data: built from BK Hacken's last 44 games and IF Elfsborg's last 44.
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 63% | Draw 19% | IF Elfsborg 18%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 1.59 | Draw 5.19 | IF Elfsborg 5.64. The model has a clear lean to BK Hacken (63%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.27 / 1.13) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (BK Hacken's last 10 home games and IF Elfsborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: BK Hacken 80% (last 10 home games) | IF Elfsborg 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 14 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 July 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 63% | Draw 19% | IF Elfsborg 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG BK Hacken 2.27 / IF Elfsborg 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.217 / def 1.063 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.799 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.13
IF Elfsborg xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg FAQs
What time does BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 14 July 2024 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
BK Hacken 3 - 5 IF Elfsborg.
Where is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg part of?
BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 14) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 63% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 18% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (1.22) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 2.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from BK Hacken's last 44 games and IF Elfsborg's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
63%
1.59
19%
5.19
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
3.39
1.13
IF Elfsborg xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.19
19%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
10%
9.64
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
2%
54.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.13 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, BK Hacken have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 25W 5D 14L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 26W 5D 13L from 44 games, 1.89 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.82 PPG, IF Elfsborg on 1.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, BK Hacken have posted 2.50 PPG from their last 22 home games (18W 1D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — BK Hacken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 11W 1D 10L from their last 22 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
BK Hacken are averaging 2.16 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.89 scored and 1.05 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
BK Hacken (Home) vs IF Elfsborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
BK Hacken
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg Form FAQs
What form are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 25W 5D 14L in their last 44 games (1.82 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 26W 5D 13L in their last 44 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or IF Elfsborg away?
BK Hacken's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 2.50 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.55 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was on 25 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
BK Hacken's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BK Hacken
3
Draws
3
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, BK Hacken have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 May 2026: IF Elfsborg 1-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 82%, IF Elfsborg 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for BK Hacken and 59% for IF Elfsborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 73% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 32%; IF Elfsborg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of BK Hacken's games and 41% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of BK Hacken's matches and 59% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of BK Hacken's recent matches and 64% of IF Elfsborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over BK Hacken.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat BK Hacken 3-5 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 2.27 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.13 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. IF Elfsborg outscored their 1.13 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.22 / defence 1.06 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.80 / defence 1.09, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 63% | Draw 19% | IF Elfsborg 18%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a IF Elfsborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 75%, IF Elfsborg 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.82 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.