Hammarby FF 0-1 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 63% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees IFK Goteborg travel to Tele2 Arena to take on Hammarby FF. The game is scheduled for Monday 15 July 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hammarby FF have posted 5W 4D 1L at Tele2 Arena — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Hammarby FF are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hammarby FF register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, IFK Goteborg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Hammarby FF hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for IFK Goteborg, with 2 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Hammarby FF a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 54% versus IFK Goteborg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 60% | IFK Goteborg 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 2.17 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.153 / defence 0.853 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.908 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.704 / away 1.358. Data: 43 Hammarby FF games / 43 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 63% | Draw 20% | IFK Goteborg 17%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | IFK Goteborg 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 80% | IFK Goteborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 15 Jul 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 63% | Draw 20% | IFK Goteborg 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 58% | xG Hammarby FF 2.17 / IFK Goteborg 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.153 / def 0.853 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.908 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.704 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.05
IFK Goteborg xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 15 July 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Hammarby FF 0 - 1 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 63% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg?
Record (5 meetings): Hammarby FF 3W | Draws 2 | IFK Goteborg 0W.
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against IFK Goteborg's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.17. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Goteborg's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
63%
1.59
20%
5.04
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
3.22
1.05
IFK Goteborg xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
11%
8.74
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
2%
50.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.05 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 18W 12D 13L from 43 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Goteborg, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 19L across 43 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hammarby FF by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IFK Goteborg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 13W 5D 3L from 21 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
IFK Goteborg's away record stands at 5W 7D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.07 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 18W 12D 13L in their last 43 games (1.53 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 12W 12D 19L in their last 43 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or IFK Goteborg away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.10 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Hammarby FF have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2025, when Hammarby FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting IFK Goteborg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
1
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 7, IFK Goteborg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when IFK Goteborg 0-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 71%, IFK Goteborg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Hammarby FF and 52% for IFK Goteborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play IFK Goteborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Hammarby FF's games and 52% of IFK Goteborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Hammarby FF's matches and 52% of IFK Goteborg's.
Do Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Goteborg defy the odds to beat Hammarby FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat Hammarby FF 0-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 2.17 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.05 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hammarby FF fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.15 / defence 0.85 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.91 / defence 1.10, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 63% | Draw 20% | IFK Goteborg 17%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a IFK Goteborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 60%, IFK Goteborg 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with IFK Goteborg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.