Osasuna 2-3 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Celta Vigo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Osasuna host Celta Vigo at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 October 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Osasuna — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna at Estadio El Sadar this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Sadar. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Celta Vigo stand at 1W 7D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Celta Vigo have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osasuna 1.10 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Osasuna have won 3, Celta Vigo 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2025, ended 0–1 with Celta Vigo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Celta Vigo in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Osasuna 57% and Celta Vigo 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 40% | Celta Vigo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.58 xG and Celta Vigo 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.065 / defence 0.823 | Celta Vigo attack 1.042 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.166. Data: 47 Osasuna games / 47 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 50% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 24%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Celta Vigo 4.17. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 50% | Celta Vigo 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 50% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Osasuna 1.58 / Celta Vigo 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.065 / def 0.823 | Celta Vigo attack 1.042 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Celta Vigo xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Osasuna vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Osasuna 2 - 3 Celta Vigo.
Where is Osasuna vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Celta Vigo part of?
Osasuna vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 50% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Osasuna and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Celta Vigo?
Record (7 meetings): Osasuna 3W | Draws 1 | Celta Vigo 3W.
What form are Osasuna and Celta Vigo in?
Osasuna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Celta Vigo (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Osasuna's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Celta Vigo's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Celta Vigo's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.82
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.58
1.00
Celta Vigo xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
5%
20.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.00 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna's recent record stands at 15W 17D 15L from 47 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have gone 16W 14D 17L across 47 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.32 PPG, Celta Vigo on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 13W 6D 3L from 22 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Celta Vigo's away record stands at 5W 6D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.43 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo in 72%.
Last 47 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 15W 17D 15L in their last 47 games (1.32 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 16W 14D 17L in their last 47 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Celta Vigo away?
Osasuna's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 2.05 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 27 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Osasuna go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2024, when Celta Vigo won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osasuna's record when hosting Celta Vigo specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Osasuna
1
Draws
4
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Celta Vigo?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 5, Celta Vigo have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 27 August 2026, when Celta Vigo 1-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Celta Vigo?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Osasuna at 68%, Celta Vigo at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Osasuna) and 64% (Celta Vigo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Celta Vigo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Osasuna's games and 77% of Celta Vigo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Osasuna's matches and 64% of Celta Vigo's.
Do Osasuna and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Celta Vigo defy the odds to beat Osasuna 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Osasuna 2-3 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.58 xG and Celta Vigo 1.00 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Celta Vigo outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.06 / defence 0.82 against Celta Vigo attack 1.04 / defence 1.08, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 50% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 24%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Celta Vigo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 40%, Celta Vigo 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.32 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.