Osasuna 2-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Osasuna (42%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Osasuna face Cadiz.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Cadiz travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna in La Liga (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Osasuna have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Osasuna have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cadiz stand at 0W 6D 4L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Cadiz's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 5D 5L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Osasuna are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Osasuna: 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Cadiz, with 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Dec 2023, ended Osasuna 1–1 Cadiz — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Osasuna an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Cadiz in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 45% versus Cadiz 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 39% | Cadiz 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.17 xG and Cadiz 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.879 / defence 1.141 | Cadiz attack 0.638 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.146. Cadiz's attack rating of 0.638 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Osasuna's last 62 games and Cadiz's last 62.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 42% | Draw 34% | Cadiz 24%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.41 | Draw 2.93 | Cadiz 4.11. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Osasuna's last 10 home games and Cadiz's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Osasuna 40% (last 10 home games) | Cadiz 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, matchday 25 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 42% | Draw 34% | Cadiz 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Osasuna 1.17 / Cadiz 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.879 / def 1.141 | Cadiz attack 0.638 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Cadiz xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Osasuna vs Cadiz FAQs
What time does Osasuna vs Cadiz kick off?
Osasuna vs Cadiz kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Cadiz?
Osasuna 2 - 0 Cadiz.
Where is Osasuna vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Cadiz part of?
Osasuna vs Cadiz is a La Liga fixture (matchday 25) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 42% chance of winning, Cadiz a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Osasuna and Cadiz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Osasuna vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (0.88) and Cadiz's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cadiz's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Osasuna's last 62 games and Cadiz's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
42%
2.41
34%
2.93
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.00
0.83
Cadiz xG
2.41
42%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
8%
13.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 11.3 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Osasuna vs Cadiz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.83 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Osasuna come into this having played 62 games, going 23W 13D 26L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Cadiz sit at 0.95 PPG from 62 outings (12W 23D 27L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.32 PPG, Cadiz on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Osasuna's home form reads 15W 4D 12L across their last 31 home games, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Cadiz have taken 0.65 points per game from their last 31 away games (3W 11D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.73 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
Osasuna (Home) vs Cadiz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Osasuna
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Osasuna vs Cadiz Form FAQs
What form are Osasuna and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 23W 13D 26L in their last 62 games (1.32 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 12W 23D 27L in their last 62 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Cadiz away?
Osasuna's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.58 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osasuna's record when hosting Cadiz specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Osasuna
1
Draws
0
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Osasuna vs Cadiz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Cadiz?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Osasuna have won 5, Cadiz have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Cadiz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2024: Osasuna 2-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Cadiz?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 42%, Cadiz 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Osasuna and 23% for Cadiz.
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 32% of games; Cadiz in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Osasuna vs Cadiz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Osasuna and Cadiz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Osasuna's recent matches and 39% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Osasuna and Cadiz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Osasuna's recent games and 23% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Cadiz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Osasuna's recent matches and 55% of Cadiz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Cadiz 2-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.17 xG and Cadiz 0.83 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Osasuna beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cadiz landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.88 / defence 1.14 against Cadiz attack 0.64 / defence 0.97, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 42% | Draw 34% | Cadiz 24%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 39%, Cadiz 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Cadiz's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.32 PPG, Cadiz 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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