Real Sociedad 0-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Sociedad at 49% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Real Sociedad vs Osasuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Osasuna travel to Reale Arena to take on Real Sociedad in La Liga (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Real Sociedad — last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Real Sociedad have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Osasuna stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Real Sociedad at 1.50 PPG versus Osasuna's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Real Sociedad hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 0 for Osasuna and 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended Real Sociedad 1–1 Osasuna — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Real Sociedad an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Real Sociedad in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Osasuna in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Sociedad 48% versus Osasuna 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Real Sociedad 38% | Osasuna 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Sociedad 1.48 xG and Osasuna 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Sociedad attack 0.954 / defence 0.822 | Osasuna attack 0.898 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.170. Data: built from Real Sociedad's last 61 games and Osasuna's last 61.
Result probabilities: Real Sociedad 49% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 20%. Fair-value odds: Real Sociedad 2.02 | Draw 3.23 | Osasuna 5.08. Real Sociedad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Sociedad at 49% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Real Sociedad 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches — though recent form (Real Sociedad's last 10 home games and Osasuna's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Real Sociedad 50% (last 10 home games) | Osasuna 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Sociedad vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, matchday 24 | Venue: Reale Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Sociedad 49% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Real Sociedad 1.48 / Osasuna 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Real Sociedad attack 0.954 / def 0.822 | Osasuna attack 0.898 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Real Sociedad xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Osasuna xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Real Sociedad vs Osasuna FAQs
What time does Real Sociedad vs Osasuna kick off?
Real Sociedad vs Osasuna kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Reale Arena.
What was the final score in Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Real Sociedad 0 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Real Sociedad vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Reale Arena.
What competition is Real Sociedad vs Osasuna part of?
Real Sociedad vs Osasuna is a La Liga fixture (matchday 24) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Real Sociedad a 49% chance of winning, Osasuna a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Real Sociedad and Osasuna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Real Sociedad vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Real Sociedad's attack at 0.95x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Real Sociedad's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Real Sociedad's last 61 games and Osasuna's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
49%
2.02
31%
3.23
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Real Sociedad xG
Total xG
2.34
0.86
Osasuna xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
4%
22.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.3 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Real Sociedad vs Osasuna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Real Sociedad and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Real Sociedad and 0.86 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Real Sociedad have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 30W 18D 13L record — D-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Osasuna's form line: 22W 13D 26L from 61 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Real Sociedad are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Osasuna.
Venue Form
On home soil, Real Sociedad have posted 1.93 PPG from their last 30 home games (16W 10D 4L).
On the road, Osasuna have gone 7W 9D 14L from their last 30 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Sociedad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Real Sociedad are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.03 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Sociedad
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
Real Sociedad (Home) vs Osasuna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Real Sociedad
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Real Sociedad vs Osasuna Form FAQs
What form are Real Sociedad and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Real Sociedad have gone 30W 18D 13L in their last 61 games (1.77 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 22W 13D 26L in their last 61 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Sociedad at home or Osasuna away?
Real Sociedad's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Sociedad at home: 1.93 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Real Sociedad or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Osasuna in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 15 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Real Sociedad have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Real Sociedad's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Real Sociedad
1
Draws
3
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Real Sociedad vs Osasuna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Osasuna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Real Sociedad have won 6, Osasuna have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Real Sociedad and Osasuna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2026: Real Sociedad 3-1 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Real Sociedad and Osasuna?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Sociedad 50%, Osasuna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Real Sociedad and 37% for Osasuna.
On the defensive side: Real Sociedad keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Osasuna in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Sociedad home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Real Sociedad vs Osasuna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Real Sociedad and Osasuna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Real Sociedad's recent matches and 50% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Real Sociedad and Osasuna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Real Sociedad's recent games and 37% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Sociedad and Osasuna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Real Sociedad's recent matches and 73% of Osasuna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Osasuna defy the odds to beat Real Sociedad 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Real Sociedad 0-1 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.48 xG and Osasuna 0.86 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Real Sociedad fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.95 / defence 0.82 against Osasuna attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 49% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 20%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Osasuna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 38%, Osasuna 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Sociedad's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Osasuna's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with Osasuna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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