Granada CF 2-3 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Real Sociedad at 51% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Granada CF vs Real Sociedad encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Granada CF welcome Real Sociedad to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes in La Liga (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 9 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Granada CF have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

At home, Granada CF have gone 1W 6D 3L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Real Sociedad stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling, Real Sociedad have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Granada CF at 0.60 PPG versus Real Sociedad's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Granada CF's games and 60% of Real Sociedad's (from Granada CF's last 10 home games and Real Sociedad's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

Despite the home advantage, Real Sociedad have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Granada CF. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Granada CF 3–5 Real Sociedad — a Real Sociedad win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Real Sociedad have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 5.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

In-Play Profile

Granada CF in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.

Real Sociedad in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 58% versus Real Sociedad 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 42% | Real Sociedad 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 0.90 xG and Real Sociedad 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.759 / defence 1.257 | Real Sociedad attack 1.122 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.102. Granada CF's attack rating of 0.759 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Granada CF's defence rating of 1.257 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Real Sociedad's projected output up. Data: built from Granada CF's last 26 games and Real Sociedad's last 65.

Result probabilities: Granada CF 19% | Draw 30% | Real Sociedad 51%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 5.13 | Draw 3.33 | Real Sociedad 1.98. Real Sociedad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Real Sociedad as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Real Sociedad 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 5.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Granada CF 70% (last 10 home games) | Real Sociedad 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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