Almeria 2-2 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sevilla at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almeria vs Sevilla encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 28 as Almeria welcome Sevilla to Power Horse Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 11 March 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Almeria — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Power Horse Stadium, Almeria have gone 0W 7D 3L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all La Liga games this season, Sevilla have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sevilla have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sevilla — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Almeria have won 1, Sevilla 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2023, ended 1–5 with Sevilla winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Almeria in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sevilla in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almeria 65% and Sevilla 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 62% | Sevilla 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 0.99 xG and Sevilla 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.735 / defence 1.181 | Sevilla attack 0.917 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.110. Almeria's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 Almeria games / 65 Sevilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almeria 28% | Draw 34% | Sevilla 39%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 3.57 | Draw 2.94 | Sevilla 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sevilla at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sevilla offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Almeria 50% | Sevilla 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 11 Mar 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 28% | Draw 34% | Sevilla 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Almeria 0.99 / Sevilla 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.735 / def 1.181 | Sevilla attack 0.917 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Sevilla xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Sevilla kick off?
Almeria vs Sevilla kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 11 March 2024 at Power Horse Stadium.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Sevilla?
Almeria 2 - 2 Sevilla.
Where is Almeria vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium.
What competition is Almeria vs Sevilla part of?
Almeria vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 28% chance of winning, Sevilla a 39% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Almeria and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Sevilla?
Record (3 meetings): Almeria 1W | Draws 0 | Sevilla 2W.
What form are Almeria and Sevilla in?
Almeria (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Sevilla (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Almeria's attack at 0.73x the league average against Sevilla's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sevilla's attack versus Almeria's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
28%
3.59
34%
2.98
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Almeria xG
Total xG
2.19
1.20
Sevilla xG
3.59
28%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
8%
11.96
14%
6.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.5 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Almeria and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Almeria and 1.20 for Sevilla, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Almeria have picked up 0.77 PPG on a 11W 17D 37L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sevilla's form line: 19W 19D 27L from 65 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almeria on 0.77 PPG, Sevilla on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Almeria have posted 1.25 PPG from 32 outings (10W 10D 12L). That's noticeably better than their 0.77 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sevilla have gone 8W 9D 15L from 32 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Almeria are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.23 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Sevilla in 60%.
Last 65 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almeria and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 11W 17D 37L in their last 65 games (0.77 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 19W 19D 27L in their last 65 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Sevilla away?
Almeria's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.25 PPG; Sevilla away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almeria and Sevilla runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2023, when Sevilla won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almeria's record when hosting Sevilla specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Almeria
1
Draws
2
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Sevilla?
From 4 meetings on record, Almeria have won 1, Sevilla have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2024, when Almeria 2-2 Sevilla.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Sevilla?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 59%, Sevilla 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Almeria) and 47% (Sevilla).
On the defensive side: Almeria have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almeria play Sevilla?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Almeria's games and 56% of Sevilla's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almeria vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Almeria's recent games and 47% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almeria and Sevilla tend to score early?
Almeria have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Sevilla in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almeria and Sevilla share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almeria and Sevilla finished level at 2-2 at Power Horse Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 0.99 xG and Sevilla 1.20 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Almeria beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.73 / defence 1.18 against Sevilla attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 28% | Draw 34% | Sevilla 39%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 62%, Sevilla 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Sevilla's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almeria 0.77 PPG, Sevilla 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sevilla (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.