Getafe 2-0 Valladolid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Getafe at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Getafe vs Valladolid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Valladolid make the trip to Estadio Coliseum to face Getafe in La Liga, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Friday 22 November 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Getafe (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Getafe at Estadio Coliseum this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Valladolid have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Valladolid have posted 1W 0D 5L from 6 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Getafe, 1 for Valladolid and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jun 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Getafe half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Valladolid half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 46% versus Valladolid 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Getafe 8% | Valladolid 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 1.46 xG and Valladolid 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.716 / defence 0.924 | Valladolid attack 0.856 / defence 1.442. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.059. Getafe's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Valladolid bring a strong defensive rating of 1.442 — this is suppressing Getafe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Getafe games / 13 Valladolid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Getafe 52% | Draw 27% | Valladolid 21%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Valladolid 4.76. Getafe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Getafe as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Getafe if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Getafe 40% | Valladolid 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Valladolid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio Coliseum • Kick-off: Friday 22 Nov 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 52% | Draw 27% | Valladolid 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Getafe 1.46 / Valladolid 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.716 / def 0.924 | Valladolid attack 0.856 / def 1.442 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Getafe (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Valladolid xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Getafe vs Valladolid kick off?
Getafe vs Valladolid kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 22 November 2024 at Estadio Coliseum.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Valladolid?
Getafe 2 - 0 Valladolid.
Where is Getafe vs Valladolid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Coliseum.
What competition is Getafe vs Valladolid part of?
Getafe vs Valladolid is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Valladolid?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 52% chance of winning, Valladolid a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Valladolid?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Getafe and Valladolid will score (BTTS).
Will Getafe vs Valladolid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Valladolid?
Record (2 meetings): Getafe 0W | Draws 1 | Valladolid 1W.
What form are Getafe and Valladolid in?
Getafe (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Valladolid (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Getafe vs Valladolid?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Getafe's attack at 0.72x the league average against Valladolid's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valladolid's attack (0.86x) against Getafe's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 51/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
52%
1.94
27%
3.70
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Getafe xG
Total xG
2.30
0.84
Valladolid xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
5%
20.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.3 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Valladolid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Getafe and Valladolid expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Getafe and 0.84 for Valladolid, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Valladolid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Getafe's recent record stands at 1W 7D 5L from 13 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valladolid, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 8L across 13 games — 0.69 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Valladolid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.77 PPG for Getafe against 0.69 for Valladolid. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Getafe have managed 1W 4D 1L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valladolid's away record stands at 1W 0D 5L across 6 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Getafe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Getafe are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Valladolid are on 0.77 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Last 13 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Blended
Valladolid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Getafe and Valladolid in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 1W 7D 5L in their last 13 games (0.77 PPG), while Valladolid have gone 2W 3D 8L in their last 13 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Valladolid away?
Getafe's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 1.17 PPG; Valladolid away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Getafe have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Getafe won 0-4 on 6 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Getafe have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Valladolid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Getafe
1
Draws
1
Valladolid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Valladolid?
From 4 meetings on record, Getafe have won 2, Valladolid have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Valladolid last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Valladolid 0-4 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Getafe and Valladolid?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Valladolid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Getafe 50%, Valladolid 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Getafe) and 83% (Valladolid).
On the defensive side: Getafe keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Getafe have failed to score in 33% of games; Valladolid in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Valladolid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Getafe play Valladolid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Getafe's recent matches and 50% of Valladolid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Getafe vs Valladolid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Getafe's recent games and 83% of Valladolid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Getafe and Valladolid tend to score early?
Getafe have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Valladolid in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Getafe cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Valladolid.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Getafe beat Valladolid 2-0 at Estadio Coliseum, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.46 xG and Valladolid 0.84 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Valladolid landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.72 / defence 0.92 against Valladolid attack 0.86 / defence 1.44, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 52% | Draw 27% | Valladolid 21%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 8%, Valladolid 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Valladolid's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Getafe 0.77 PPG, Valladolid 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm. Valladolid (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.