Alaves 1-0 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valencia at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alaves vs Valencia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Valencia make the trip to Estadio de Mendizorroza to face Alaves in La Liga, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Wednesday 14 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Alaves have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Alaves's home record at Estadio de Mendizorroza: 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Valencia's overall La Liga record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Valencia have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Valencia are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Alaves lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Alaves — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Valencia — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 42% versus Valencia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 34% | Valencia 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.96 xG and Valencia 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.594 / defence 0.808 | Valencia attack 1.096 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.175. Alaves's attack strength of 0.594 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 73 Alaves games / 73 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 33% | Draw 31% | Valencia 37%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Valencia 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Alaves dominate the H2H record, yet Valencia are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Valencia are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Alaves 20% | Valencia 90%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 33% | Draw 31% | Valencia 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Alaves 0.96 / Valencia 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.594 / def 0.808 | Valencia attack 1.096 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Valencia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Valencia xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Valencia kick off?
Alaves vs Valencia kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 14 May 2025 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Valencia?
Alaves 1 - 0 Valencia.
Where is Alaves vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Valencia part of?
Alaves vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 33% chance of winning, Valencia a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Alaves and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Valencia?
Record (5 meetings): Alaves 3W | Draws 1 | Valencia 1W.
What form are Alaves and Valencia in?
Alaves (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Valencia (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Alaves's attack at 0.59x the league average against Valencia's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valencia's attack (1.10x) against Alaves's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
33%
3.07
31%
3.25
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.00
1.04
Valencia xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 14.0 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Alaves and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Alaves and 1.04 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alaves come into this having played 73 games, going 20W 21D 32L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.29 PPG from 73 outings (24W 22D 27L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Alaves against 1.29 for Valencia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Alaves's home form reads 14W 9D 13L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 0.92 points per game from 36 outings (7W 12D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alaves are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.14 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 73 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Current Season
Valencia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Valencia in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 20W 21D 32L in their last 73 games (1.11 PPG), while Valencia have gone 24W 22D 27L in their last 73 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Valencia away?
Alaves's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.42 PPG; Valencia away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valencia won 3-0 on 27 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Valencia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Alaves
2
Draws
2
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Valencia?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 4, Valencia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Valencia 3-2 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Valencia?
Alaves have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 33%, Valencia 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Alaves and 47% for Valencia.
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Alaves have failed to score in 36% of games; Valencia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Valencia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Alaves's recent matches and 58% of Valencia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Alaves's recent games and 47% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Valencia tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Valencia in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alaves defy the odds to beat Valencia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Valencia 1-0 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.96 xG and Valencia 1.04 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Valencia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.59 / defence 0.81 against Valencia attack 1.10 / defence 1.18, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 33% | Draw 31% | Valencia 37%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Alaves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 34%, Valencia 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Valencia's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.11 PPG, Valencia 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.