Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-1 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Ulsan Hyundai FC welcome Pohang Steelers to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 May 2026 at 05:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 3W 3D 4L at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Pohang Steelers have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Pohang Steelers's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Ulsan Hyundai FC) versus 1.20 (Pohang Steelers). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 2 for Pohang Steelers and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Pohang Steelers in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% versus Pohang Steelers 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Pohang Steelers 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.80 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.313 / defence 1.323 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.037 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.294. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.313 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 43 Pohang Steelers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 24% | Pohang Steelers 37%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Pohang Steelers 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.4 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 69% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.58 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% | Pohang Steelers 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 24% | Pohang Steelers 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 71% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.80 / Pohang Steelers 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.313 / def 1.323 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.037 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Pohang Steelers xG
71%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 05:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 0 - 1 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 38% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers?
Record (8 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 4W | Draws 2 | Pohang Steelers 2W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Pohang Steelers (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 1.31x the league average against Pohang Steelers's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pohang Steelers's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
38%
2.61
24%
4.10
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
3.58
1.77
Pohang Steelers xG
2.61
38%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.40
Clean Sheet
17%
5.90
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
7%
15.38
6%
16.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.77 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent record stands at 32W 20D 24L from 76 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Pohang Steelers, meanwhile, have gone 30W 19D 27L across 76 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.53 PPG, Pohang Steelers on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ulsan Hyundai FC have managed 20W 8D 9L from 37 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pohang Steelers's away record stands at 14W 7D 16L across 37 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Pohang Steelers are on 1.24 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 32W 20D 24L in their last 76 games (1.53 PPG), while Pohang Steelers have gone 30W 19D 27L in their last 76 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Pohang Steelers away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 1.84 PPG; Pohang Steelers away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Pohang Steelers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pohang Steelers in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Pohang Steelers specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
3
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, Pohang Steelers have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pohang Steelers 0-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 49%, Pohang Steelers 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 46% (Pohang Steelers).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Pohang Steelers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 60% of Pohang Steelers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 46% of Pohang Steelers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Pohang Steelers in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pohang Steelers defy the odds to beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.80 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.77 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ulsan Hyundai FC fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.31 / defence 1.32 against Pohang Steelers attack 1.04 / defence 1.18, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 24% | Pohang Steelers 37%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Pohang Steelers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%, Pohang Steelers 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.53 PPG, Pohang Steelers 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pohang Steelers win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.