Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-3 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC host Jeonbuk Motors at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 June 2022 at 10:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeonbuk Motors stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 K League 1 matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Jeonbuk Motors — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Jeonbuk Motors in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% versus Jeonbuk Motors 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% | Jeonbuk Motors 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.92 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.191 / defence 0.860 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.096 / defence 0.639. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.114. Jeonbuk Motors's defence strength of 0.639 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 48 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 48 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 31% | Draw 31% | Jeonbuk Motors 38%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% | Jeonbuk Motors 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jun 2022, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 31% | Draw 31% | Jeonbuk Motors 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.92 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.191 / def 0.860 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.096 / def 0.639 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Jeonbuk Motors xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 19 June 2022 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 3 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 31% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Jeonbuk Motors's defensive record (0.64x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
31%
3.22
31%
3.22
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
1.97
1.05
Jeonbuk Motors xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
15%
6.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 14.6 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.05 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent record stands at 21W 11D 6L from 38 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Jeonbuk Motors, meanwhile, have gone 22W 10D 6L across 38 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.95 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ulsan Hyundai FC have managed 13W 5D 1L from 19 games — 2.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeonbuk Motors's away record stands at 9W 7D 3L across 19 trips, a 1.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.87 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Jeonbuk Motors in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 21W 11D 6L in their last 38 games (1.95 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 22W 10D 6L in their last 38 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.32 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1
Draws
5
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, Jeonbuk Motors have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-3 Jeonbuk Motors.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%, Jeonbuk Motors 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 42% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Jeonbuk Motors in 37%; Jeonbuk Motors in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Jeonbuk Motors?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 53% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 42% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeonbuk Motors cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-3 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.92 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.05 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.86 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.10 / defence 0.64, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 31% | Draw 31% | Jeonbuk Motors 38%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%, Jeonbuk Motors 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.95 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.