Suwon City FC 0-2 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Suwon City FC welcome Gwangju FC to Suwon Sports Complex. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 May 2023 at 10:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Suwon City FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Suwon Sports Complex, Suwon City FC have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gwangju FC — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Gwangju FC haven't played a K League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Gwangju FC have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Suwon City FC) versus 0.80 (Gwangju FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Suwon City FC, 1 for Gwangju FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2023, ended 0–2 with Gwangju FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Suwon City FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Gwangju FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 60% versus Gwangju FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 63% | Gwangju FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.87 xG and Gwangju FC 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.135 / defence 1.324 | Gwangju FC attack 0.908 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.282. Gwangju FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Suwon City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Suwon City FC games / 14 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 45% | Draw 23% | Gwangju FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | Gwangju FC 3.12. Suwon City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Suwon City FC as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 70% | Gwangju FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 45% | Draw 23% | Gwangju FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Suwon City FC 1.87 / Gwangju FC 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.135 / def 1.324 | Gwangju FC attack 0.908 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Gwangju FC xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Suwon City FC 0 - 2 Gwangju FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 45% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC?
Record (1 meetings): Suwon City FC 0W | Draws 0 | Gwangju FC 1W.
What form are Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Gwangju FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (1.14) and Gwangju FC's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gwangju FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
45%
2.22
23%
4.28
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
3.41
1.54
Gwangju FC xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
10%
10.36
5%
20.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.54 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Suwon City FC come into this having played 38 games, going 13W 9D 16L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Gwangju FC sit at 1.00 PPG from 38 outings (10W 8D 20L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five. Gwangju FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon City FC on 1.26 PPG, Gwangju FC on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Suwon City FC's home form reads 8W 4D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Gwangju FC have taken 0.89 points per game from 19 outings (5W 2D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Suwon City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.13 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Gwangju FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 13W 9D 16L in their last 38 games (1.26 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 10W 8D 20L in their last 38 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Gwangju FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.47 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Gwangju FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Gwangju FC specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
1
Draws
6
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 3, Gwangju FC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Suwon City FC 0-1 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gwangju FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 74%, Gwangju FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Suwon City FC and 53% for Gwangju FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Gwangju FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Suwon City FC's games and 53% of Gwangju FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Suwon City FC's matches and 53% of Gwangju FC's.
Do Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Gwangju FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gwangju FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC beat Suwon City FC 0-2 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 15, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.87 xG and Gwangju FC 1.54 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Suwon City FC fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.32 against Gwangju FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.32, drawn from 47/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 45% | Draw 23% | Gwangju FC 32%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Gwangju FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 63%, Gwangju FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.26 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gwangju FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.