Suwon Bluewings 1-2 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Suwon Bluewings at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Suwon City FC travel to Suwon World Cup Stadium to take on Suwon Bluewings. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 20 July 2021, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Suwon Bluewings have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Suwon Bluewings, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon Bluewings at Suwon World Cup Stadium this season: 4W 3D 2L from 9 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Suwon City FC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon City FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 4L across 9 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Suwon Bluewings carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Suwon Bluewings trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Suwon City FC trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Suwon Bluewings 53% and Suwon City FC 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 47% | Suwon City FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.46 xG and Suwon City FC 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 1.132 / defence 1.125 | Suwon City FC attack 0.823 / defence 1.374. League average goals — home 0.937 / away 1.269. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.374 — this is suppressing Suwon Bluewings's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Suwon Bluewings games / 19 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 42% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Suwon City FC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon Bluewings are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Suwon Bluewings 67% | Suwon City FC 56% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Jul 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 42% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.46 / Suwon City FC 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 1.132 / def 1.125 | Suwon City FC attack 0.823 / def 1.374 | league avg home 0.937 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Suwon City FC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 20 July 2021 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC?
Suwon Bluewings 1 - 2 Suwon City FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 42% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Suwon City FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Suwon Bluewings's attack rating (1.13) and Suwon City FC's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Suwon Bluewings's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
42%
2.38
29%
3.42
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
2.63
1.17
Suwon City FC xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
7%
14.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.17 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Suwon Bluewings have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 9W 6D 4L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Suwon Bluewings is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suwon City FC's form line: 5W 6D 8L from 19 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Suwon Bluewings are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Suwon City FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Suwon Bluewings have posted 1.67 PPG from 9 outings (4W 3D 2L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Suwon Bluewings come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.26 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 68%.
Defensively: Suwon Bluewings have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 9W 6D 4L in their last 19 games (1.74 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 5W 6D 8L in their last 19 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Suwon City FC away?
Suwon Bluewings's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 1.67 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Suwon Bluewings or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon Bluewings have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Aug 2021, when Suwon City FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon Bluewings's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon Bluewings
0
Draws
7
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, Suwon City FC have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2023, when Suwon City FC 2-3 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC?
Suwon City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon Bluewings are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Suwon City FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 67%, Suwon City FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Suwon Bluewings) and 44% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play Suwon City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Suwon Bluewings's games and 56% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 44% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Suwon Bluewings have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Suwon Bluewings 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Suwon Bluewings 1-2 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.46 xG and Suwon City FC 1.17 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Suwon City FC outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 1.13 / defence 1.12 against Suwon City FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.37, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 42% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 29%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 47%, Suwon City FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Suwon Bluewings arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Suwon City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.