Seongnam FC 0-1 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Seongnam FC take on Suwon Bluewings.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tancheon Sports Complex plays host to Seongnam FC versus Suwon Bluewings in K League 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 25 April 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Seongnam FC 0W, Suwon Bluewings 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2021, ended 0–1 with Suwon Bluewings winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 0.83 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 0.900 / defence 1.146 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.749 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 0.907 / away 0.943. Data: 11 Seongnam FC games / 11 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 32% | Draw 37% | Suwon Bluewings 31%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 3.12 | Draw 2.70 | Suwon Bluewings 3.23. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.64. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.64 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Suwon Bluewings's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Apr 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 32% | Draw 37% | Suwon Bluewings 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 32% | xG Seongnam FC 0.83 / Suwon Bluewings 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 0.900 / def 1.146 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.749 / def 1.012 | league avg home 0.907 / away 0.943 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Suwon Bluewings xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Seongnam FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 25 April 2021 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Seongnam FC 0 - 1 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Seongnam FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Seongnam FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 32% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 31% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Seongnam FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (1 meetings): Seongnam FC 0W | Draws 0 | Suwon Bluewings 1W.
What form are Seongnam FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Seongnam FC's attack rating (0.90) and Suwon Bluewings's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Suwon Bluewings's attack (0.75x) against Seongnam FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.12
37%
2.72
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
1.64
0.81
Suwon Bluewings xG
3.12
32%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.11
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
14%
7.01
14%
7.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.5 | 15.8 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.2%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 0.81 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 1.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Pre-Season
Suwon Bluewings
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since March 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Suwon Bluewings go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon Bluewings won 4-1 on 14 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Seongnam FC have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Seongnam FC
1
Draws
5
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 7 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 1, Suwon Bluewings have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 3 October 2022, when Seongnam FC 0-2 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Seongnam FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Suwon Bluewings have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Suwon Bluewings defy the odds to beat Seongnam FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat Seongnam FC 0-1 at Tancheon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 12, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 0.83 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.81 xG, a combined 1.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Seongnam FC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.15 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.75 / defence 1.01, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 32% | Draw 37% | Suwon Bluewings 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Suwon Bluewings win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.