Seongnam FC 1-5 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Seongnam FC vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Jeonbuk Motors travel to Tancheon Sports Complex to take on Seongnam FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 June 2021, 08:00 UTC.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Seongnam FC, 1 for Jeonbuk Motors and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2021, ended 0–1 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 0.85 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 0.883 / defence 1.238 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.946 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 0.962 / away 1.180. Data: 15 Seongnam FC games / 17 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 21% | Draw 31% | Jeonbuk Motors 47%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 4.76 | Draw 3.23 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.13. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Jun 2021, 08:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 21% | Draw 31% | Jeonbuk Motors 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Seongnam FC 0.85 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 0.883 / def 1.238 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.946 / def 1.004 | league avg home 0.962 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Jeonbuk Motors xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Seongnam FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 08:00 on Sunday 6 June 2021 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Seongnam FC 1 - 5 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Seongnam FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Seongnam FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 21% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 47% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Seongnam FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Record (1 meetings): Seongnam FC 0W | Draws 0 | Jeonbuk Motors 1W.
What form are Seongnam FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Seongnam FC's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Jeonbuk Motors's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Seongnam FC's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
21%
4.69
31%
3.21
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
2.24
1.38
Jeonbuk Motors xG
4.69
21%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
5%
18.70
20%
4.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 14.8 | 10.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 1.38 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Pre-Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Seongnam FC and Jeonbuk Motors runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeonbuk Motors have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jun 2021, when Jeonbuk Motors won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Seongnam FC's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Seongnam FC
1
Draws
5
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 6 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 0, Jeonbuk Motors have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2022, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Seongnam FC.
Who has won more matches between Seongnam FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Jeonbuk Motors run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Seongnam FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Seongnam FC 1-5 at Tancheon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 15, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 0.85 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.38 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors outscored their 1.38 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.24 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.95 / defence 1.00, drawn from 15/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 21% | Draw 31% | Jeonbuk Motors 47%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.