Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Ulsan Hyundai FC travel to Jeonju World Cup Stadium to take on Jeonbuk Motors. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 August 2026, 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeonbuk Motors stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeonbuk Motors's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Jeonju World Cup Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jeonju World Cup Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Jeonbuk Motors are significantly better at Jeonju World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jeonbuk Motors 1.20 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for Jeonbuk Motors, 3 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jul 2026, ended 3–1 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jeonbuk Motors in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 52% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 46% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.15 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.017 / defence 0.924 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.153 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.337. Data: 56 Jeonbuk Motors games / 56 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 27% | Draw 33% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 27% | Draw 33% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.15 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.017 / def 0.924 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.153 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 27% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (9 meetings): Jeonbuk Motors 5W | Draws 1 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3W.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jeonbuk Motors's attack rating (1.02) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
27%
3.69
33%
3.02
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.58
1.42
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
7%
15.32
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.42 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeonbuk Motors come into this having played 61 games, going 32W 17D 12L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L. The sample for Jeonbuk Motors is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ulsan Hyundai FC sit at 1.33 PPG from 61 outings (22W 15D 24L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jeonbuk Motors carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jeonbuk Motors's home form reads 16W 7D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have taken 1.30 points per game from 30 outings (10W 9D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.30 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 32W 17D 12L in their last 61 games (1.85 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 22W 15D 24L in their last 61 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.83 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeonbuk Motors have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 6, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 63%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 40% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 60% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 40% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jeonbuk Motors defy the odds to beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.15 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.42 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ulsan Hyundai FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.02 / defence 0.92 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.99, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 27% | Draw 33% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Jeonbuk Motors win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 46%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.