Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jeonju World Cup Stadium plays host to Jeonbuk Motors versus Suwon City FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 19 February 2022 at 05:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jeonbuk Motors have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 8W 1D 1L at Jeonju World Cup Stadium — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Suwon City FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Jeonbuk Motors's 2.50 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Suwon City FC's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Jeonbuk Motors — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 53% versus Suwon City FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 47% | Suwon City FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.37 xG and Suwon City FC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.098 / defence 0.943 | Suwon City FC attack 1.039 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.235. Data: 33 Jeonbuk Motors games / 33 Suwon City FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 41% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Suwon City FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jeonbuk Motors 40% | Suwon City FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 41% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.37 / Suwon City FC 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.098 / def 0.943 | Suwon City FC attack 1.039 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Suwon City FC xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 05:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 0 Suwon City FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 41% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jeonbuk Motors's attack at 1.10x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (1.04x) against Jeonbuk Motors's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
41%
2.47
26%
3.79
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.58
1.21
Suwon City FC xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
8%
11.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.21 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jeonbuk Motors's recent record stands at 22W 10D 6L from 38 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Suwon City FC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 15L across 38 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jeonbuk Motors by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Suwon City FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jeonbuk Motors have managed 13W 3D 3L from 19 games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Suwon City FC's away record stands at 5W 6D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.39 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 61%.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 22W 10D 6L in their last 38 games (2.00 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 14W 9D 15L in their last 38 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Suwon City FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 2.21 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jeonbuk Motors won 0-6 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 7, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 2-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Suwon City FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 53%, Suwon City FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 58% (Suwon City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Suwon City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 58% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Jeonbuk Motors's matches and 58% of Suwon City FC's.
Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Suwon City FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Suwon City FC 1-0 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.37 xG and Suwon City FC 1.21 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Suwon City FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.10 / defence 0.94 against Suwon City FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.01, drawn from 33/33 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 41% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 33%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 47%, Suwon City FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.