Jeonbuk Motors 0-0 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 41%, yet in-form Jeonbuk Motors provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen meet at Jeonju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 21 July 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jeonbuk Motors have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Daejeon Citizen (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Daejeon Citizen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daejeon Citizen's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Jeonbuk Motors's favour (1.70 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Jeonbuk Motors have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 9 meetings, with Daejeon Citizen managing just 1 victories and 4 draws shared.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.
The historical record gives Jeonbuk Motors a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Jeonbuk Motors — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Daejeon Citizen — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 54% versus Daejeon Citizen 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 46% | Daejeon Citizen 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.19 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.324 / defence 1.026 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.141 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.055 / away 1.225. Jeonbuk Motors carry an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — their λ of 1.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Jeonbuk Motors games / 51 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 30% | Draw 29% | Daejeon Citizen 41%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Daejeon Citizen 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Daejeon Citizen are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jeonbuk Motors (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 70% | Daejeon Citizen 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Jul 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 30% | Draw 29% | Daejeon Citizen 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.19 / Daejeon Citizen 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.324 / def 1.026 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.141 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.055 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Daejeon Citizen xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 21 July 2026 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen?
Jeonbuk Motors 0 - 0 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 30% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen?
Record (9 meetings): Jeonbuk Motors 4W | Draws 4 | Daejeon Citizen 1W.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Jeonbuk Motors's attack at 1.32x the league average against Daejeon Citizen's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Daejeon Citizen's attack (1.14x) against Jeonbuk Motors's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
30%
3.38
29%
3.40
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.62
1.43
Daejeon Citizen xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
7%
14.18
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.4 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.43 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jeonbuk Motors come into this having played 56 games, going 31W 15D 10L for 1.93 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Jeonbuk Motors is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Daejeon Citizen sit at 1.50 PPG from 56 outings (22W 18D 16L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Daejeon Citizen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jeonbuk Motors carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Daejeon Citizen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Jeonbuk Motors's home form reads 16W 5D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Daejeon Citizen have taken 1.63 points per game from 27 outings (12W 8D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.41 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
Daejeon Citizen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 31W 15D 10L in their last 56 games (1.93 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 22W 18D 16L in their last 56 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Daejeon Citizen away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.96 PPG; Daejeon Citizen away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Daejeon Citizen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Daejeon Citizen in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Daejeon Citizen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jeonbuk Motors
5
Draws
1
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 4, Daejeon Citizen have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 0-0 Daejeon Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Daejeon Citizen see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 67%, Daejeon Citizen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Jeonbuk Motors and 59% for Daejeon Citizen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Daejeon Citizen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 56% of Daejeon Citizen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Jeonbuk Motors's matches and 59% of Daejeon Citizen's.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jeonbuk Motors's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen finished level at 0-0 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.19 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.43 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Daejeon Citizen landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.32 / defence 1.03 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.14 / defence 0.85, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 30% | Draw 29% | Daejeon Citizen 41%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 46%, Daejeon Citizen 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.