Jeju United FC 2-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC meet at Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 August 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Jeju United FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Jeju United FC have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Jeju United FC are significantly better at Jeju World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Ulsan Hyundai FC arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Jeju United FC half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 91% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jeju United FC 68% and Ulsan Hyundai FC 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.02 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.987 / defence 1.557 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.864 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 0.938 / away 1.153. Data: 22 Jeju United FC games / 23 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 24% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 49%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.04. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jeju United FC 90% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 24% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Jeju United FC 1.02 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.987 / def 1.557 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.864 / def 1.101 | league avg home 0.938 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeju United FC 2 - 2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 24% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jeju United FC's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (0.86x) against Jeju United FC's defence (1.56x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
24%
4.21
28%
3.60
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.57
1.55
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
4.21
24%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
5%
19.89
18%
5.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.55 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 22 outings, Jeju United FC have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 4W 12D 6L record — D-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 11W 8D 3L from 22 games, 1.86 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jeju United FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jeju United FC have posted 1.18 PPG from 11 outings (3W 4D 4L).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 5W 4D 2L from 11 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.41 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Blended
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 4W 12D 6L in their last 22 games (1.09 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 11W 8D 3L in their last 22 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.18 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Jeju United FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
0
Draws
8
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 2, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 91% for Jeju United FC, 46% for Ulsan Hyundai FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Jeju United FC) and 46% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 46%; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 91% of Jeju United FC's games and 46% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 46% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 25, as Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC drew 2-2 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.02 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.55 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Jeju United FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.56 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.10, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 24% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 49%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 50%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.