Jeju United FC 1-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC meet at Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 May 2021 at 08:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.25 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 1.070 / defence 1.374 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.966 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 0.971 / away 1.143. Ulsan Hyundai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Jeju United FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Jeju United FC games / 17 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 29% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 May 2021, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 29% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Jeju United FC 1.25 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 1.070 / def 1.374 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.966 / def 1.205 | league avg home 0.971 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 29 May 2021 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeju United FC 1 - 2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 29% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jeju United FC's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (0.97x) against Jeju United FC's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 18/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
29%
3.43
30%
3.38
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.77
1.52
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
6%
15.62
12%
8.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.52 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Pre-Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
0
Draws
8
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 2, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Jeju United FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Jeju United FC 1-2 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.25 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.52 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.37 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.21, drawn from 18/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 29% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 41%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.