Jeju United FC 1-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC meet at Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 April 2023 at 06:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jeju United FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Jeju United FC have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Ulsan Hyundai FC arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jeju United FC have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Jeju United FC half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 60% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 57% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 0.98 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.840 / defence 1.015 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.067 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.093. Data: 37 Jeju United FC games / 37 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 27% | Draw 36% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 3.70 | Draw 2.78 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Jeju United FC 80% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 27% | Draw 36% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Jeju United FC 0.98 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.840 / def 1.015 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.067 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 06:00 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeju United FC 1 - 3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 27% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 37% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jeju United FC's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (1.07x) against Jeju United FC's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
27%
3.72
36%
2.79
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.16
1.18
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.72
27%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
8%
12.14
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 13.6 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.18 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 76 outings, Jeju United FC have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 26W 26D 24L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 43W 21D 12L from 76 games, 1.97 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jeju United FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jeju United FC have posted 1.32 PPG from 37 outings (12W 13D 12L).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 17W 12D 8L from 37 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.59 scored and 0.99 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 26W 26D 24L in their last 76 games (1.37 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 43W 21D 12L in their last 76 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.32 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Jeju United FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
0
Draws
8
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 2, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 65%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Jeju United FC) and 54% (Ulsan Hyundai FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Jeju United FC's games and 60% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Jeju United FC's matches and 54% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's.
Do Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jeju United FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Jeju United FC 1-3 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 0.98 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.18 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.01 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.82, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 27% | Draw 36% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 37%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 57%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.