Jeju United FC 1-2 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeju United FC at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jeju World Cup Stadium plays host to Jeju United FC versus Suwon Bluewings in K League 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 20 August 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jeju United FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeju United FC's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Jeju World Cup Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Jeju United FC are significantly better at Jeju World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Suwon Bluewings's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Suwon Bluewings, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon Bluewings's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Jeju United FC, 0.90 for Suwon Bluewings — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jeju United FC lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Jeju United FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Suwon Bluewings goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 55% versus Suwon Bluewings 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 52% | Suwon Bluewings 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 2.00 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 1.209 / defence 0.934 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.803 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.250. Data: 59 Jeju United FC games / 59 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 62% | Draw 22% | Suwon Bluewings 17%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Suwon Bluewings 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Jeju United FC (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeju United FC are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Jeju United FC 60% | Suwon Bluewings 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 62% | Draw 22% | Suwon Bluewings 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Jeju United FC 2.00 / Suwon Bluewings 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 1.209 / def 0.934 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.803 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Suwon Bluewings xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Jeju United FC 1 - 2 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 62% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (3 meetings): Jeju United FC 2W | Draws 1 | Suwon Bluewings 0W.
What form are Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jeju United FC's attack at 1.21x the league average against Suwon Bluewings's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon Bluewings's attack (0.80x) against Jeju United FC's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
62%
1.62
22%
4.62
17%
6.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.94
0.94
Suwon Bluewings xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
6.03
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
13%
7.42
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
2%
44.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 0.94 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jeju United FC's recent record stands at 23W 23D 18L from 64 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suwon Bluewings, meanwhile, have gone 18W 19D 27L across 64 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Suwon Bluewings is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Jeju United FC against 1.14 for Suwon Bluewings. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jeju United FC have managed 12W 11D 8L from 31 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Suwon Bluewings's away record stands at 8W 7D 16L across 31 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeju United FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.02 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 64 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Blended
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 23W 23D 18L in their last 64 games (1.44 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 18W 19D 27L in their last 64 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.52 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Jeju United FC or Suwon Bluewings been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Suwon Bluewings in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Jeju United FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Jeju United FC
1
Draws
2
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 7, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Jeju United FC 2-0 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 61%, Suwon Bluewings 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Jeju United FC) and 48% (Suwon Bluewings).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Suwon Bluewings in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Suwon Bluewings?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Jeju United FC's recent matches and 42% of Suwon Bluewings's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 48% of Suwon Bluewings's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Suwon Bluewings in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Suwon Bluewings defy the odds to beat Jeju United FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat Jeju United FC 1-2 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 2.00 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.94 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jeju United FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Suwon Bluewings outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.93 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.80 / defence 1.15, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 62% | Draw 22% | Suwon Bluewings 17%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Suwon Bluewings win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 52%, Suwon Bluewings 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.44 PPG, Suwon Bluewings 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon Bluewings win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.