Incheon United 1-2 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Incheon United take on Jeju United FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Incheon United and Jeju United FC meet at Sungui Arena Park in K League 1, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 08:30 UTC.
Form
Incheon United (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Incheon United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Incheon United have posted 4W 5D 1L at Sungui Arena Park — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sungui Arena Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Jeju United FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeju United FC's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form favours the hosts. Incheon United's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Jeju United FC's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Jeju United FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 50% versus Jeju United FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 54% | Jeju United FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 0.84 xG and Jeju United FC 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.877 / defence 0.821 | Jeju United FC attack 0.702 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 0.983 / away 1.126. Data: 26 Incheon United games / 26 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 37% | Draw 37% | Jeju United FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.70 | Draw 2.70 | Jeju United FC 3.85. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.49. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.49 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Jeju United FC's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.49 combined xG gives a 19% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 27%. Form rates corroborate: Incheon United 30% | Jeju United FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 37% | Draw 37% | Jeju United FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 27% | xG Incheon United 0.84 / Jeju United FC 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.877 / def 0.821 | Jeju United FC attack 0.702 / def 0.971 | league avg home 0.983 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Jeju United FC xG
27%
BTTS
44%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Incheon United 1 - 2 Jeju United FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Jeju United FC part of?
Incheon United vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 37% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 26% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Incheon United and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Incheon United and Jeju United FC in?
Incheon United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Jeju United FC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Incheon United's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Jeju United FC's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.70x) against Incheon United's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 24.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.3%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.72
37%
2.67
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Incheon United xG
Total xG
1.49
0.65
Jeju United FC xG
2.72
37%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.64
73%
BTTS No
1.38
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
11%
8.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.6 | 14.7 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 12.3 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.2%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Incheon United and 0.65 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 1.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, Incheon United have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 10W 6D 10L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Incheon United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jeju United FC's form line: 6W 13D 7L from 26 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Incheon United against 1.19 for Jeju United FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Incheon United have posted 1.77 PPG from 13 outings (6W 5D 2L).
On the road, Jeju United FC have gone 2W 8D 3L from 13 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Incheon United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Incheon United are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.08 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC in 62%.
Last 26 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Blended
Jeju United FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 10W 6D 10L in their last 26 games (1.38 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 6W 13D 7L in their last 26 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Jeju United FC away?
Incheon United's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.77 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Incheon United have gone 4W 0D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Incheon United
1
Draws
4
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 5, Jeju United FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Jeju United FC 3-3 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Jeju United FC?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 38%, Jeju United FC 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Incheon United and 31% for Jeju United FC.
On the defensive side: Incheon United keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 54%; Incheon United have failed to score in 38% of games; Jeju United FC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Incheon United's recent matches and 38% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Incheon United's recent games and 31% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Jeju United FC defy the odds to beat Incheon United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Incheon United 1-2 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 29, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 0.84 xG and Jeju United FC 0.65 xG, a combined 1.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jeju United FC outscored their 0.65 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.88 / defence 0.82 against Jeju United FC attack 0.70 / defence 0.97, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 37% | Draw 37% | Jeju United FC 26%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Jeju United FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 44% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 54%, Jeju United FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.38 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Incheon United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.