Gangwon FC 1-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Relegation Round - 2 as Gangwon FC welcome Jeju United FC to Gangneung Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 October 2023 at 08:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gangwon FC have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gangwon FC at Gangneung Stadium this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jeju United FC — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Jeju United FC have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gangwon FC 1.00 PPG, Jeju United FC 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gangwon FC register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Jeju United FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Gangwon FC, 0 for Jeju United FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Gangwon FC in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Jeju United FC in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 54% versus Jeju United FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 39% | Jeju United FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.24 xG and Jeju United FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.862 / defence 1.052 | Jeju United FC attack 0.894 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.130. Data: 66 Gangwon FC games / 66 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 40% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Jeju United FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Gangwon FC 90% | Jeju United FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Gangneung Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 40% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Gangwon FC 1.24 / Jeju United FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 0.862 / def 1.052 | Jeju United FC attack 0.894 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Jeju United FC xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Gangneung Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Gangwon FC 1 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Gangneung Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 40% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC?
Record (1 meetings): Gangwon FC 0W | Draws 1 | Jeju United FC 0W.
What form are Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Jeju United FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gangwon FC's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Jeju United FC's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
40%
2.52
29%
3.40
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.30
1.06
Jeju United FC xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
9%
11.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.06 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gangwon FC come into this having played 72 games, going 18W 21D 33L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Jeju United FC sit at 1.25 PPG from 72 outings (24W 18D 30L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gangwon FC on 1.04 PPG, Jeju United FC on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gangwon FC's home form reads 10W 10D 15L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeju United FC have taken 1.26 points per game from 35 outings (13W 5D 17L).
Goals in Recent Form
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.29 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 72 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 18W 21D 33L in their last 72 games (1.04 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 24W 18D 30L in their last 72 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Jeju United FC's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.14 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jul 2024, when Gangwon FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gangwon FC
7
Draws
0
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 3, Jeju United FC have won 0, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Jeju United FC 1-1 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 60%, Jeju United FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Gangwon FC) and 57% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Jeju United FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Jeju United FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Gangwon FC's games and 57% of Jeju United FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 57% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC finished level at 1-1 at Gangneung Stadium, Relegation Round - 2, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.24 xG and Jeju United FC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.05 against Jeju United FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.17, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 40% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 31%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 39%, Jeju United FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.04 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.