FC Seoul 0-1 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Seoul host Seongnam FC at Seoul World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 May 2022 at 08:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Seoul stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 K League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
FC Seoul's home record at Seoul World Cup Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Seoul World Cup Stadium this season.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Seongnam FC have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Seongnam FC have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FC Seoul are in the better shape of the two on current K League 1 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, FC Seoul have won 1, Seongnam FC 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC Seoul in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Seongnam FC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 50% versus Seongnam FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 45% | Seongnam FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.76 xG and Seongnam FC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 1.183 / defence 0.932 | Seongnam FC attack 0.894 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.138. Data: 46 FC Seoul games / 46 Seongnam FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 56% | Draw 23% | Seongnam FC 20%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Seongnam FC 5.00. The model has a clear lean to FC Seoul (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Seoul at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC Seoul 50% | Seongnam FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 56% | Draw 23% | Seongnam FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG FC Seoul 1.76 / Seongnam FC 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 1.183 / def 0.932 | Seongnam FC attack 0.894 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Seongnam FC xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC?
FC Seoul 0 - 1 Seongnam FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 56% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FC Seoul and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Seongnam FC?
Record (5 meetings): FC Seoul 1W | Draws 3 | Seongnam FC 1W.
What form are FC Seoul and Seongnam FC in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Seongnam FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Seoul's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Seongnam FC's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Seongnam FC's attack versus FC Seoul's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
56%
1.77
23%
4.27
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.71
0.95
Seongnam FC xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
3%
28.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for FC Seoul and 0.95 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Seoul's recent record stands at 12W 11D 15L from 38 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Seongnam FC, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 16L across 38 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Seoul on 1.24 PPG, Seongnam FC on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Seoul have managed 5W 6D 8L from 19 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Seongnam FC's away record stands at 3W 6D 10L across 19 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Seoul are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Seongnam FC are on 0.89 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Current Season
Seongnam FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Seoul and Seongnam FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Seongnam FC have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Seongnam FC away?
FC Seoul's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.11 PPG; Seongnam FC away: 0.79 PPG.
Have FC Seoul or Seongnam FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Seoul have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Seongnam FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2021, when FC Seoul won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Seoul's record when hosting Seongnam FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
FC Seoul
3
Draws
3
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Seongnam FC?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 2, Seongnam FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2022, when FC Seoul 0-1 Seongnam FC.
Who has won more matches between FC Seoul and Seongnam FC?
Seongnam FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Seongnam FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 42%, Seongnam FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Seoul) and 53% (Seongnam FC).
On the defensive side: FC Seoul keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; FC Seoul have failed to score in 42% of games; Seongnam FC in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Seoul play Seongnam FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of FC Seoul's recent matches and 47% of Seongnam FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of FC Seoul's recent games and 53% of Seongnam FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Seoul and Seongnam FC tend to score early?
FC Seoul have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Seongnam FC in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Seongnam FC defy the odds to beat FC Seoul 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Seongnam FC beat FC Seoul 0-1 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.76 xG and Seongnam FC 0.95 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Seoul fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.18 / defence 0.93 against Seongnam FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.19, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 56% | Draw 23% | Seongnam FC 20%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Seongnam FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 45%, Seongnam FC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Seongnam FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.24 PPG, Seongnam FC 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Seongnam FC win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.